Foreign Affairs | Boots & Sabers

Category: Foreign Affairs

Israel Decapitates Iran’s Nuclear and Military Capability

by Owen | 0721, 13 Jun 25 | Foreign Affairs, Military | 2 Comments

Israel might be the most lethal military in the world right now – including us. The combination of intelligence, precision, and lethality is remarkable. What we are learning is that while Iran is a deadly world actor through their support of terrorist groups, they are rather weak in terms actual military power. That’s why they want the nuke… and that’s why they can’t have it.

Israel launched strikes across Iran on Friday, saying they targeted the “heart” of Iran’s nuclear programme.

The strikes killed Hossein Salami, chief of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards – a powerful branch of the country’s armed forces – other senior military figures and nuclear scientists.

Civilians, including children, were also among those killed, Iranian state media reported. The BBC is not able to independently verify these reports.

The Israeli military said Iran launched about 100 drones towards Israel on Friday morning, which the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) said it was intercepting. A state of emergency was declared in Israel.

The US said it was not involved in the strikes. Multiple strikes were reported, including on Iran’s main nuclear enrichment facility.

Iran Caught Lying. Rattles Saber.

by Owen | 0632, 12 Jun 25 | Foreign Affairs | 1 Comment

Their behavior is remarkably consistent.

The global nuclear watchdog has found Iran has failed to meet its non-proliferation obligations for the first time in 20 years.

A resolution passed by the board of governors of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) carries the threat of an eventual referral to the UN Security Council.

It follows a report from the IAEA last week, which cited a general lack of “co-operation” from Iran and raised concerns over secret activities and undeclared nuclear material in areas which have long been under investigation.

Iran’s foreign minister had warned European powers earlier this week that backing the motion would be a mistake and that it would react strongly.

U.S. and China Near Trade Deal

by Owen | 0742, 11 Jun 25 | Economy, Foreign Affairs | 5 Comments

Excellent. The devil is in the details, but it’s progress.

U.S. President Donald Trump Wednesday said that China will supply rare earths upfront to the U.S. as part of a trade agreement.

The relationship between the world’s two largest economies is “excellent,” Trump said in a post on Truth Social, while adding, “WE ARE GETTING A TOTAL OF 55% TARIFFS, CHINA IS GETTING 10%.”

He added that full magnets and “any necessary rare earths” will be supplied up front by China and that the U.S. will in turn make certain concessions such as allowing Chinese students to attend U.S. colleges and universities.

The agreement is subject to final approval with himself and China President Xi Jinping, the White House leader said.

Representatives from both sides had on Tuesday revealed that a deal had been reached on trade after a second day of high-level talks in London.

“We have reached a framework to implement the Geneva consensus and the call between the two presidents,” U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick told reporters.

Ukrainian Drone Strike Hits Russia Hard

by Owen | 1953, 1 Jun 25 | Foreign Affairs, Military, Technology | 0 Comments

Warfare has changed. The tactics are different. The technology is different. The ability to wage asymmetric warfare in your enemy’s camp has never been greater. Enemies can hit multiple strategic targets deep in our homeland – including parts of our nuclear deterrence capabilities. I sure as heck hope our military planners are paying attention.

Ukraine says it completed its biggest long-range attack of the war with Russia on Sunday, after using smuggled drones to launch a series of major strikes on 40 Russian warplanes at four military bases.

President Volodymyr Zelensky said 117 drones were used in the so-called “Spider’s Web” operation by the SBU security service, striking “34% of [Russia’s] strategic cruise missile carriers”.

SBU sources earlier told BBC News it took a year-and-a-half to organise the strikes, which involved drones hidden in wooden mobile cabins, with remotely operated roofs on trucks, brought near the airbases and then fired “at the right time”.

[…]

Sources in the SBU earlier on Sunday told the BBC in a statement that four Russian airbases – two of which are thousands of miles from Ukraine – were hit:

Belaya in Irkutsk oblast (region), Siberia

Olenya in Murmansk oblast, Russia’s extreme north-west

Dyagilevo in central Ryazan oblast

Ivanovo in central Ivanovo oblast

The SBU sources said that among the hit Russian aircraft were strategic nuclear capable bombers called Tu-95 and Tu-22M3, as well as A-50 early warning warplanes.

Hegseth Reaffirms US’ Commitment to Protecting Taiwan

by Owen | 0823, 31 May 25 | Foreign Affairs | 0 Comments

Gone is the wishy-washy language of the Biden regime.

He said that Beijing was “credibly preparing to potentially use military force to alter the balance of power” in Asia, and referred to a 2027 deadline that President Xi Jinping has allegedly given for China’s military to be capable to invade Taiwan.

This is a date put forth by US officials and generals for years, but has never been confirmed by Beijing.

China “is building the military needed to do it, training for it, every day and rehearsing for the real deal”, Hegseth said.

“Let me be clear: any attempt by Communist China to conquer Taiwan by force would result in devastating consequences for the Indo-Pacific and the world. There’s no reason to sugarcoat it. The threat China poses is real. And it could be imminent. We hope not but certainly could be.”

State Department Submits Reorganization Plan

by Owen | 1825, 29 May 25 | Foreign Affairs, Politics | 0 Comments

Progress

The letter sent to Congress by the State Department notes that the reorganization will affect more than 300 bureaus and offices, saying it’s eliminating divisions it describes as doing unclear or overlapping work and that Rubio believes “effective modern diplomacy requires streamlining this bloated bureaucracy.”

The document is clear that the reorganization is also intended to eliminate programs — particularly those related to refugees and immigration, as well as human rights and democracy promotion — that the Trump administration believes have become ideologically driven in a way that is incompatible with its priorities and policies.

“These offices, which have proven themselves prone to ideological capture and radicalism, will be either eliminated, with their statutory functions realigned elsewhere in the department, or restructured to better reflect their appropriate scope and the administration’s foreign policy priorities,” the notification says.

The reorganization notes USAID’s dismantlement and the shifting of some of its work to the State Department, particularly under a vastly restructured Bureau of Population, Refugees and Migration. PRM, as it is known, will have under its responsibility U.S. international disaster relief operations that had previously been tasked to USAID.

Federal Trade Court Rules Against Trump on Tariffs

by Owen | 1955, 28 May 25 | Economy, Foreign Affairs, Law | 12 Comments

Admittedly, I have a bias because I hate tariffs and I am not a lawyer, but I think I agree with the court. The Executive Branch does not have the power to arbitrarily impose tariffs in the Constitution and the notion that we have an economic emergency is dubious, at best. I certainly wouldn’t want a Leftist president to declare an economic emergency and make all kinds of sweeping arbitrary decisions and I don’t want Trump doing it either. Yes, this means that Congress needs to get off their asses, but that’s how our government was designed.

A federal court ruled Wednesday that President Donald Trump exceeded his authority with his reciprocal tariffs, dealing a blow to a major tenet of the president’s economic agenda.

A three-judge panel at the Court of International Trade ruled that the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, a 1977 law that Trump invoked to justify the tariffs, does not actually give the president the power to unilaterally implement the sweeping duties.

“The Worldwide and Retaliatory Tariff Orders exceed any authority granted to the President by IEEPA to regulate importation by means of tariffs,” the judges wrote in their ruling.

“The Trafficking Tariffs fail because they do not deal with the threats set forth in those orders,” they continued.

Dow futures jumped 400 points Wednesday on news of the ruling.

Implementing tariffs typically requires congressional approval, but Trump chose to bypass Congress by declaring a national economic emergency, and using the purported emergency as justification for invoking the tariffs on his own.

The Trump administration swiftly appealed the ruling Wednesday.

“Foreign countries’ nonreciprocal treatment of the United States has fueled America’s historic and persistent trade deficits,” White House spokesperson Kush Desai said in a statement after the order.

“These deficits have created a national emergency that has decimated American communities, left our workers behind, and weakened our defense industrial base – facts that the court did not dispute.”

Canada Welcomes King Charles

by Owen | 0725, 27 May 25 | Foreign Affairs | 0 Comments

It just seems weird in the 21st century to have a King.

Britain’s King Charles III arrived in Canada on Monday for his first visit as its head of state, where he’ll carry out a highly-symbolic whistle-stop trip seen by many as a show of support following increasingly frayed relations between Ottawa and Washington.

During his two-day visit, Charles, 76, will deliver a speech in Canada’s parliament and celebrate the country’s cultural heritage and diversity, according to Buckingham Palace. He will be accompanied by his wife, Queen Camilla.

Soon after their arrival on Monday, Charles and Camilla will meet with community organizations at an Ottawa park, according to the Canadian Prime Minister’s Office. Later on Monday, the pair will plant a tree on the grounds of Rideau Hall, the monarch’s usual residence while visiting Canada.

[…]

Carney said last week that his compatriots “weren’t impressed” after Charles extended a second state invitation to the US president. Trump would be the first elected political leader in modern times to be hosted twice by a British monarch.

“It was at a time when we were being quite clear about the issues around sovereignty,” Carney said.

India and Pakistan Feud Continues

by Owen | 1910, 23 May 25 | Foreign Affairs | 0 Comments

They are still a long way from peace.

ISLAMABAD, NEW DELHI (Reuters) -Pakistan will not get water from rivers over which India has rights, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi said on Thursday, upping the rhetoric in a standoff over water access triggered by a deadly attack in Indian Kashmir.

Pakistan’s chief legal officer, in an interview with Reuters, responded that Islamabad remained willing to discuss water sharing between the neighbours but said India must stick to a decades-old treaty.

India said last month it was suspending the Indus Waters Treaty in a slew of measures after the April 22 attack in Indian Kashmir that New Delhi blamed on Islamabad – a charge Pakistan dismisses.

Hong Kong Dude is Proud to Report Neighbors to the Police

by Owen | 2027, 8 May 25 | Foreign Affairs | 0 Comments

After seeing Americans react to COVID, I 100% believe that there are plenty of Americans who would do the same.

With new laws and arrests, there has been limited reporting on Hong Kong’s pro-China “patriots” – the people who are now running and policing the city, as well as the ordinary citizens who openly support them. But the BBC has spent weeks interviewing Innes Tang, 60, a prominent self-described patriot.

He and his volunteers have taken screen grabs from social media of any activities or comments they believe could be in breach of the NSL.

He also established a hotline for tip-offs from the public and encouraged his online followers to share information on the people around them.

Nearly 100 individuals and organisations have been reported to the authorities by him and his followers, he says.

“Does reporting work? We wouldn’t do it if it didn’t,” Mr Tang says. “Many had cases opened by the police… with some resulting in jail terms.”

Mr Tang says he hasn’t investigated alleged law breakers himself, but simply reported incidents he thinks warrant scrutiny – describing it as “proper community-police co-operation”.

War Boils Between Pakistan and India

by Owen | 1912, 6 May 25 | Foreign Affairs | 0 Comments

These are two large nuclear powers who hate each other. It could get very ugly.

ISLAMABAD (AP) — India fired missiles into Pakistani-controlled territory in several locations early Wednesday, killing at least eight people including a child, Pakistani authorities said. India said it was striking infrastructure used by militants.

Tensions have soared between the nuclear-armed neighbors since last month’s massacre of tourists in the Indian-controlled portion of Kashmir. India has blamed Pakistan for backing the militant attack, which Islamabad has denied.

Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif condemned Wednesday’s airstrikes and said the “deceitful enemy has carried out cowardly attacks at five locations in Pakistan” and that his country would retaliate.

Source of Massive Power Outage is Unknown

by Owen | 1916, 28 Apr 25 | Foreign Affairs | 0 Comments

I suspect that someone does know and they don’t want to say.

A sweeping power outage left millions of people in Spain, Portugal and parts of France without electricity on Monday, leading to chaotic scenes and widespread disruption.

A problem with the power connection between France and Spain was a contributing factor to the outage, the head of a trade body that represents Europe’s power industry said.

[…]

Mr Ruby said this “meant the Spanish grid was disconnected from the broader European grid”.

He added that the interconnector incident was unlikely to have caused the outage on its own and that there were “likely to have been other elements in this equation”.

A day of widespread disruption saw trains cancelled and evacuated in some regions, and traffic lights stop working as delays mounted at airports.

U.S. Opposes Allowing Ukraine into NATO

by Owen | 1907, 21 Apr 25 | Foreign Affairs, Politics | 1 Comment

Good.

“We have heard from Washington at various levels that Ukraine’s membership in NATO is excluded,” Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters. “Of course, this is something that causes us satisfaction and coincides with our position.”

Ukrainian membership of the U.S.-led alliance would threaten Russian interests, Peskov added. “And, in fact, this is one of the root causes of this conflict.”

I support the US opposing Ukraine’s entry into NATO. The US represents the bulk of NATO resources and funding. By the terms of the NATO alliance, each country is obligated to come to the aid of a fellow NATO member should they be invaded. Ergo, if Ukraine enters NATO, we, the American People, would be on the hook to send treasure and, more importantly, American soldiers, to defend Ukraine. NATO was formed as a bulwark against the Soviet Union invading Western Europe. At the time of its founding, Ukraine was a part of the Soviet Union. It’s nonsensical to expect Americans to pay so high a price to defend Ukraine.

Furthermore, Ukraine doesn’t bring much to the NATO table. They are historically corrupt and militarily weak without aid. If they want to participate in the European economy and westernization, they can finish joining the EU. NATO is a military alliance.

Russia’s position is also sensible. Look at a map. Ukraine is all up in Russia and NATO is a military alliance specifically built to oppose Russia (as the successor to the USSR). The US would have never tolerated Mexico joining the Warsaw Pact. Even Cuba didn’t join that military alliance and the US would have opposed it with vigor. Maintaining a buffer zone between Russia and Western Europe has been Russian doctrine since before Peter the Great. It is long-standing and well-known. Putin’s position is neither new nor novel.

The fact that Russia’s and the United States’ national interests align on this one point does not make us allies nor does it make Trump a fan of Putin. It’s grown-up foreign policy.

El Salvador Offers Prisoner Exchange to Venezuela

by Owen | 1949, 20 Apr 25 | Crime, Foreign Affairs | 0 Comments

Looks like one of the reasons that Bukele was so willing to take the deportees was to use them as leverage. Good for him.

Salvadoran President Nayib Bukele has proposed a prisoner exchange with Venezuela, offering to repatriate hundreds of Venezuelans who were deported from the United States in exchange for “political prisoners.”

In a post on X, Bukele offered to exchange 252 Venezuelans currently detained in El Salvador’s mega prison for “an identical number (252) of the thousands of political prisoners” he says Venezuela holds, including family members of opposition leaders.

“Unlike our detainees, many of whom have committed murder, others have committed rape, and some have even been arrested multiple times before being deported, your political prisoners have committed no crime,” Bukele said in the post, which was directed at Venezuela’s President Nicolás Maduro. “The only reason they are imprisoned is because they opposed you and your electoral fraud.”

The US and El Salvador say most of the deportees locked up in El Salvador’s Cecot prison are members of the Venezuelan gang Tren de Aragua and some are members of the MS-13 Salvadoran gang. But officials have provided scant evidence to show the inmates have ties to those criminal groups.

Venezuela’s leader has described the deportation of the mostly Venezuelan migrants as a “kidnapping,” and denied they are criminals while backing calls for their return.

Get it Done or We’re Moving On

by Owen | 1856, 18 Apr 25 | Foreign Affairs, Politics | 0 Comments

I like this stance.

When asked about the deal between Russian and Ukraine, Trump said: “We’re talking about here people dying. We’re going to get it stopped, ideally.

“Now if, for some reason, one of the two parties makes it very difficult, we’re just going to say, ‘You’re foolish, you’re fools, you’re horrible people,’ and we’re going to just take a pass.”

[…]

Zelensky had been hoping to use the deal to secure a US security guarantee in the event of a ceasefire deal, telling European leaders last month that “a ceasefire without security guarantees is dangerous for Ukraine”.

The US has so far resisted providing Kyiv with security guarantees.

At this point, this is clearly a negotiating tactic by Trump to put pressure on getting a deal done. But he’s also right. This isn’t our war. Our interests are limited and it is not our full responsibility to fix it. At some point, we should walk away.

And no way in hell do I want America giving Ukraine unlimited security guarantees. Maybe commit to economic sanctions or something if Russia misbehaves, but I don’t want us committing to armed defense of Ukraine.

That being said, I hope they get to a viable deal very quickly.

DHS Revokes Parole Status for 900,000 People

by Owen | 2001, 8 Apr 25 | Foreign Affairs, Politics | 0 Comments

Progress

The Department of Homeland Security revoked parole status for those who used the CBP One App to obtain the status. The move puts over 900,000 migrants up for deportation.

Parole status is a two-year temporary authorization to be in the United States due to circumstances in the home country.

Remember that Biden was having random illegal sign up on the app in order to waive them into the country to avoid the unseemly sights at the border. It was all fake and these people do not have legitimate claims to have parole status. They can leave and reapply if they have a legitimate status.

Most Foreign Exchanges Continue to Slide

by Owen | 1941, 6 Apr 25 | Economy, Foreign Affairs, Politics | 0 Comments

It’ll get worse before it gets better. Circuit breakers likely to trip tomorrow.

Asia-Pacific markets extended their sell-off Monday as fears over a global trade war sparked by U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariffs fueled a risk-off mood.

Japanese markets led losses in the region in early trade. The benchmark Nikkei 225 plunged 8.03% while the broader Topix index plummeted 8.64%.

Over in South Korea, the Kospi index fell 4.34% at the open, while the small-cap Kosdaq fell 3.48%.

Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 declined 6.07% at the open. The benchmark slid into correction territory with an 11% decline since its last high in February, in its previous session.

Futures for Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index stood at 22,772 pointing to a stronger open compared to the HSI’s last close of 22,849.81.

I’m not panicked. I’m not pulling out of the equity markets. I think tariffs are terrible policy, but I also think that the U.S. economy was inflated. The U.S. economy is incredibly resilient and will bounce back fine.

Trump’s Tariffs

by Owen | 1930, 2 Apr 25 | Economy, Foreign Affairs, Politics | 4 Comments

Ugh. Bad policy and bad politics.

President Donald Trump on Wednesday laid out the U.S. “reciprocal tariff” rates that more than 180 countries and territories, including European Union members, will face under his sweeping new trade policy.

Trump and the White House shared a series of charts on social media detailing the tariff rates they say other countries impose on the U.S. Those purported rates include the countries’ “Currency Manipulation and Trade Barriers.”

An adjacent column shows the new U.S. tariff rates on each country, as well as the European Union.

Those rates are, in most cases, roughly half of what the Trump administration claims each country has “charged” the U.S.

No, I don’t like tariffs. They are stupid policy. An argument can be made for reciprocal tariffs to create a fair playing field (with the hope that both countries back down), but even then it’s a risky policy playing with consumers’ money.

But even if the reciprocal tariffs were a good idea as a policy or a tactic, Trump’s timing is terrible. He is on a very short clock to get some big things done in terms of cutting government, cutting taxes, cutting regulations, etc. He needs Congress’ support for that and the Republican margins in Congress are razor thin. When Trump’s approval rating starts sagging because everyone’s 401(k) is crashing, those marginal Republicans will stray. Trump will not be able to help encourage party discipline if he’s a lame duck president with a weak approval rating.

Get the big stuff done in Congress FIRST. The play with international trade with tariffs if you want. As he’s doing it, even if some other countries do lower their tariffs and open up markets for American goods, it will take capital to invest in building the capacity to serve those markets. It’s much harder to get capital when we suck trillions of dollars out of the equity markets.

American Freed by Taliban

by Owen | 1512, 29 Mar 25 | Foreign Affairs | 0 Comments