Boots & Sabers

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Tag: Tariffs

Treasury Secretary Blames Tech Selloff for Market Pullback

Now that’s just some plain BS. The market clearly reacted to Trump’s Tariffs. The fact that his administration is trying to deflect blame instead of owning it and explaining it as a temporary pullback in the name of the longer term good (not that I agree with that, but that is the argument he should be making) is stupid on multiple levels.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said Wednesday the sell-off in the stock market is due more to a sharp pullback in the biggest technology stocks instead of the protectionist policies coming from the Trump administration.

 

“I’m trying to be Secretary of Treasury, not a market commentator. What I would point out is that especially the Nasdaq peaked on DeepSeek day so that’s a Mag 7 problem, not a MAGA problem,” Bessent said on Bloomberg TV Wednesday evening.

Bessent was referring to Chinese AI startup DeepSeek, whose new language models sparked a rout in U.S. technology stocks in late January. The emergence of DeepSeek’s highly competitive and potentially much cheaper models stoked doubts about the billions that the big U.S. tech companies are spending on AI.

 

The so-called Magnificent 7 stocks — Apple, Amazon, Tesla, Alphabet, Microsoft, Meta and Nvidia — started selling off drastically, pulling the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite into correction territory. The tech-heavy benchmark is down about 13% from its record high reached on December 16.

 

However, the secretary downplayed the impact from President Donald Trump’s steep tariffs, which caught many investors off guard and fueled fears of a re-acceleration in inflation, slower economic growth and even a recession. Many investors have blamed the tariff rollout for driving the S&P 500 briefly into correction territory from its record reached in late February. Wall Street defines a correction as a drop of 10% from a recent high.

Trump’s Tariffs

Ugh. Bad policy and bad politics.

President Donald Trump on Wednesday laid out the U.S. “reciprocal tariff” rates that more than 180 countries and territories, including European Union members, will face under his sweeping new trade policy.

 

Trump and the White House shared a series of charts on social media detailing the tariff rates they say other countries impose on the U.S. Those purported rates include the countries’ “Currency Manipulation and Trade Barriers.”

An adjacent column shows the new U.S. tariff rates on each country, as well as the European Union.

 

Those rates are, in most cases, roughly half of what the Trump administration claims each country has “charged” the U.S.

No, I don’t like tariffs. They are stupid policy. An argument can be made for reciprocal tariffs to create a fair playing field (with the hope that both countries back down), but even then it’s a risky policy playing with consumers’ money.

But even if the reciprocal tariffs were a good idea as a policy or a tactic, Trump’s timing is terrible. He is on a very short clock to get some big things done in terms of cutting government, cutting taxes, cutting regulations, etc. He needs Congress’ support for that and the Republican margins in Congress are razor thin. When Trump’s approval rating starts sagging because everyone’s 401(k) is crashing, those marginal Republicans will stray. Trump will not be able to help encourage party discipline if he’s a lame duck president with a weak approval rating.

Get the big stuff done in Congress FIRST. The play with international trade with tariffs if you want. As he’s doing it, even if some other countries do lower their tariffs and open up markets for American goods, it will take capital to invest in building the capacity to serve those markets. It’s much harder to get capital when we suck trillions of dollars out of the equity markets.

Tariffs Cometh

Earlier this year, I was in the market for a new bicycle. An acquaintance and avid cyclist recommended bikesdirect.com to me. After doing some investigating, I ended up buying a new bike on the site. Although the site is spartan, the selection, prices, and customer service were excellent. I was very happy with the experience and really enjoyed my new bike.

Today, I got this email from them:

bikesdirecttariffs

Here are the notes from the email:

1) Today Several Bicycle Industry Experts Testified in Washington On the Increased Tariff on Complete Bicycles, Bicycle Parts and Accessories

2) 94% of Bicycles Sold in USA are from China, 97% of Kids Bikes are from China (most Bikesdirect Models are Not made in China)

3) Added 25% Tariff on Almost ALL eBikes Goes Into Effect August 23 Thursday. Many eBike Brands Are Increasing Prices Thursday (Example – one popular model going from $3500 MSRP to $5,000 MSRP)

4) Most Bicycle Distributors Are Not Running End of Year Discounts Due to Upcoming Increased Cost of 2019’s.

5) Alternative Factories in Other Countries Currently Booked To Near Capacity (Likely Bicycle Shortages Last Quarter of 2018)

6) NO BICYCLE COMPANY makes enough money to absorb a 25% increase in Cost. (However, Bikesdirect will always price bicycles below anyone in the industry)

7) Bikesdirect Will Strive to Hold Current Sale Prices Until The Bleeding Becomes Too Much To Bear

Tariffs are damaging our economy and costing Americans. If you won’t oppose tariffs because they are poor economic policy, think of the kids! They are all going to get even fatter without affordable bikes.

Tariff War Escalates

Make it stop!

China has announced plans to put tariffs of up to 25% on US products worth $60 billion, the latest salvo in an escalating trade war.

The Chinese government said Friday that it would impose duties of 25%, 20%, 10% and 5% on the products if the Trump administration follows through on threats to tax $200 billion of Chinese goods.

Do you know who wins tariff wars? Government. Tariffs are just another outflow of cash from consumers to government. Meanwhile, consumers and our economy suffers.

Trump to Provide Farm Aid

Hmmm

WASHINGTON — The Trump administration announced on Tuesday that it would provide up to $12 billion in emergency relief for farmers hurt by the president’s trade war, moving to blunt the financial damage to American agriculture and the political fallout for Republicans as the consequences of President Trump’s protectionist policies roll through the economy.

Unveiled two days before the president is scheduled to visit Iowa, a politically important state that is the nation’s top soybean producer, the farm aid appeared calculated to show that Mr. Trump cares about farmers and is working to protect them from the worst consequences of his trade war.

But the relief money, announced by the Department of Agriculture, was also an indication that Mr. Trump — ignoring the concerns of farmers, their representatives in Congress and even some of his own aides — plans to extend his tit-for-tat tariff wars.

So Trump creates an economic hardship through his tariff policy and then uses taxpayer money to selectively bail out some of those businesses that are negatively impacted by that policy. No thanks. Just end the policy.

Furthermore, I don’t like the notion of the President pulling $12 billion out of the taxpayers’ couch without any legislative process or appropriation. $12 billion is still a LOT of our money for a single man to throw around.

Harley Shifts Production Overseas

This is one of the costs of tariffs.

Harley-Davidson plans to shift some motorcycle production away from the US to avoid the “substantial” burden of European Union tariffs.

Last week, the EU imposed retaliatory tariffs on US goods, including bourbon, orange juice and motorcycles.

The measures are a response to new US duties on steel and aluminium imports.

Wisconsin-based Harley-Davidson said the increased cost from the tariffs threaten its international sales, which it has been trying to expand.

The company has assembly plants in Australia, Brazil, India and Thailand as well as in the US.

It said it would raise investment in its international plants, though it did not say which ones.

“To address the substantial cost of this tariff burden long-term, Harley-Davidson will be implementing a plan to shift production of motorcycles for EU destinations from the US to its international facilities to avoid the tariff burden,” the company said.

Trump Ratchets Up Trade War

STOP IT!

“In light of China’s unfair retaliation, I have instructed the [United States Trade Representative] to consider whether $100 billion of additional tariffs would be appropriate,” the president said in a statement.

Earlier this week, the United States announced new tariffs on $50 billion worth of Chinese goods, claiming that China is stealing US intellectual property. China responded within hours by announcing $50 billion worth of tariffs on US goods.

The moves follow US tariffs that were imposed earlier this year on Chinese steel and aluminum, which also prompted retaliatory measures from China.

Trump’s announcement late Thursday that his administration could target another $100 billion of Chinese goods rattled markets and drew criticism from businesses and from within his own party.

Tariffs do nothing by wreck parts of the economy and retard the invisible hand of capitalism.

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