Boots & Sabers

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0739, 22 Mar 24

Trump Competing in the Battleground States

I continue to think that polls are fundamentally flawed and nobody has figured out how to do it in our modern world, but the trends are worth noting. As long as the methodology remains consistent, polls should reveal trends even if the actual percentages are off. That being said, this is interesting. Trump appears to be expanding his support while Biden is in a rearguard action. One challenge for Trump is that he is gaining support in historically less reliable voting blocks – young people and independents.


Voters in Michigan and Pennsylvania – two states that flipped from red to blue in the 2020 presidential election – begin this year’s general election campaign more dissatisfied than pleased with the candidates they have to choose from, with a fairly small but crucial share saying they are open to changing their minds on the race, according to new CNN polling conducted by SSRS.

The surveys of registered voters find a dead-even race between Donald Trump and Joe Biden in Pennsylvania (46% each), with Trump ahead in Michigan (50% Trump to 42% Biden). Both polls were fielded after Trump and Biden each clinched enough delegates to win their party’s nomination for president, according to CNN’s estimates.

The polls suggest that in this rematch with Trump, Biden’s winning 2020 coalition may now be more intact in Pennsylvania than in Michigan. The Pennsylvania poll finds Biden leading among women, voters of color, college graduates and independents, and running about even with Trump among voters younger than 35. In Michigan, though, women split about evenly, Biden’s margin among voters of color is narrower and he trails Trump by significant margins among independents and young voters. In both states, Biden holds on to about 9 in 10 of his self-described 2020 supporters, while Trump keeps slightly more of his own 2020 voters.


0739, 22 March 2024


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