Boots & Sabers

The blogging will continue until morale improves...


Everything but tech support.

0715, 02 May 23

Not Trump

My column for the Washington County Daily News is online and in print. Here’s a part:

Only halfway through his first term, President Biden has rent our great republic to the point that it will take generations to reverse the damage – if it can be reversed. Our national debt now far exceeds our country’s full annual economic output. Inflation is crushing dreams and robbing the middle class of their spending power. Our borders are wide open with terrorists and criminals intermingling with the world’s indigent. All of them are stretching and breaking our social fabric. Crime is eating out the core of our once great cities. America’s power on the international stage is at its lowest ebb since World War 1. All of this is being overseen by the increasingly senile head of what is proving to be one of the most prolific criminal family organizations our nation has ever seen, according to the investigation of the U.S. House Oversight Committee and IRS whistleblower.


Despite all of that destruction, if the Republicans choose Donald Trump as their nominee, it is more than probable that Biden will win reelection.


Donald Trump’s victory in 2016 was lightning in a bottle. He managed to speak to the large, disaffected segment of the populace who were fed up with Washington ignoring them. Meanwhile, the Democratic Party nominated a uniquely disliked political figure in Hillary Clinton after a fractious primary where the party’s schism with the socialists, led by Senator Bernie Sanders, failed to heal before the general election.


Trump’s term in office was terrific in many ways. He pushed back the regulatory state to allow the American economic engine to flourish. The Trump-Ryan tax cuts unleashed American capital and drove up real wages faster than in decades. Trump’s “America first” foreign policy was clear and sensible. Trump’s excellent choice in federal judges and fortuitous opportunity to appoint three Supreme Court justices has proven to be the only bulwark against Biden’s rapacious rule.


But let’s not kid ourselves. Trump accelerated the decadent spending of his predecessor and built the foundation from which Biden launched generational inflation. While Trump did well with Operation Warp Speed and the initial response to the pandemic, he was lethargic in letting America get back to normal and perpetuated the Rule of Fauci. Despite all of the bluster about “draining the swamp,” the swamp won.


Even with the full power of incumbency, Trump failed to win reelection. Irrespective of your thoughts on the integrity of the electoral process in 2020, Trump in 2020 was simply less popular than Trump in 2016. After all, he lost to a candidate who ran an anemic campaign from the comfort of his basement.


Trump in 2023 is in even worse shape than Trump in 2020. There is a noticeable difference in Trump’s message and priorities. Instead of talking about Making America Great Again, Trump is just a rhetorical blowtorch to anything and anyone who threatens him. Trump’s message in 2016 was about us. His message in 2023 is about him.


This is why Trump cannot win the general election. Despite what you may think of him, he has irreparably damaged his relationship with half the conservatives, three-fourths of the independents, and he never had the liberals. No matter how you work the electoral math, he cannot win a national general election again. He has let the lightning out of the bottle.


0715, 02 May 2023


  1. dad29

    He’s running against whom?

    Further, what’s the economy looking like in summer/’24?

  2. Merlin

    Nothing sillier than tying both hands behind your back. It’s way too early to be dismissing anyone.

    So, who is this new messiah that can do what Trump cannot? Restoring a woman’s right to kill is apparently a must. Can’t sell fiscal responsibility anymore. Can’t sell morality either. Can’t resist social devolution. Can’t fight. Must win without causing discomfort of any kind.

    Who is this fantasy candidate?

  3. Mar

    Sorry, but if the GOP plays hard ball the Democrats,, Trump’s wins in a landslide
    But then a cockroach would defeat Senile Joe Biden right now.

  4. dad29

    The Party of Paul Ryan………playing HARDBALL?

    Be serious.

    Most of them are too damn busy making bank while “serving the people.”

  5. Tuerqas

    I don’t know, ‘Republicans are extremists’ for being against abortions has worked like a dream for Dems the last 2 years. Add all the baggage that Dems will throw at Trump all while he talks about making himself great again and I think you have a sure loser. Tying your hands behind your back is backing Trump in my view.

    Think about it from the non-Trump, non-Biden backers point of view for a second. Neither will attract new backers and Biden won last time. Why does a sane person think a different output might happen from the same input? Trumpers may have the bad track record of Biden, but Bidies now have the same negatives on Trump they had last time, they now they have abortion, er uh, I mean women’s rights to ride for years, not to mention Trump’s indictments. It doesn’t matter that they have all deserved to go court and do jail time, the only former President in recent memory to face charges has been Trump and the Dem political war machine will hammer that home ad nauseum in this next election
    Men over 50 are the only demographic that will vote in the majority on anti-abortion. Like it or not, the opinion that abortion is murder has sailed in the entire western world except for legacy men and religion.

  6. Merlin

    Name the candidate better than Trump. Seriously. Anybody but Trump is not the same as better than Trump. If Trump were to step back and simply play kingmaker for a successor of non-RNC Republicans, who would that be? Who do you have in mind that would not be a wholly owned puppet of the Democrat-lite RNC? We’ve been down that road before and it brought us to Trump. Going back to the same RNC abuse of their voters seems like a nonstarter.

    Baggage? The Dem strategy of creating Trump fatigue with perpetual fictitious scandals is apparently a winner. Such a winning strategy is not going to change for any future not-Trump.

    I can eagerly move on from Trump. Show me someone better/more effective. Different just for the sake of difference doesn’t help a bit.

  7. dad29

    Merlin’s right. Even if DeSantis were not Suspiciously Swampy To the Touch, DeS’s cultural crusade will give the Democrats 50 years’ worth of dishonest advertising. (and I happen to like what DeS does in that regard.)

    Beyond that, Trump is NOT a hard-liner on abortion; he talks a good game, but he will never go full-bore on the matter.

    Not even the revered and venerable owner of this site has a suggestion. There’s a reason for that. And by the way, have you seen the polling on DeSantis v. Trump lately?

  8. Tuerqas

    I am not saying anyone but Trump personally. I don’t really think Reps have a shot at this next Presidential election. However, I believe a known losing option should not be the Reps go to. 8 years ago, few people thought much of Trump, but he won because Shillary was so slimy. Who better? Another political unknown, preferably much younger. You need something to fight the Dem stranglehold on youth and you need someone who will say flat out they think abortion is a woman’s right. Otherwise you will lose from the youth and women’s votes alone, no fraud necessary. If you compare the same two really old codgers, there is no contest for the votes you want to swing. They will think they have 2 known quantities and Trump loses that contest. If you had asked the same question 8-9 years ago and a month before Trump was serious, no one would have said Donald Trump. I agree that the Rep ‘knowns’ are all vote box office losers. If you want any chance of winning you have to go outside that box.

    The fact that I believe Reps are incapable of getting out there with someone new and potentially worthy does not change the likely fact that Trump will have virtually no chance of winning either. Obama came in young, idealistic and with very little to pick apart except inexperience. Trump won with political inexperience. No party followers seem to want the same old same old insiders and I think that should tell you something.

  9. dad29

    You (we) are not considering a third-party run. Manchin is prepped for that, and there may be another Egg McMuffin Pretend Republican, too–that would make FOUR party run…..

    And despite your earnest advice, no Republican candidate/nominee will say that abortion is a ‘woman’s right.’ It’s a loser; a lot of people will simply sit it out and buy more ammo if that happens.

  10. MjM

    Trump in 2020 was simply less popular than Trump in 2016

    That is incorrect.

    In 2016 Trump garnered 46.1% of the total vote, banking just shy of 63 million votes. In 2020 he got 46.8% of the total vote, with just over 74 million.

    There are lopsided polls out there showing the 60-75% of Democrats do not want Babblin’ Joe. Sure, they’d vote for him as the nominee, but he is going to have to survive a primary. And he won’t.

    Prediction: the Democrat nominee will be Kennedy Jr. And if that comes true, whoever the Repub is has no chance in hell.

    Kennedy is a flat out E-wacko leftist (at his announcement for candidacy he was introduced by washed-up former congresscritter and Uber lib Dennis Kucinich). But he currently working hard at attempting to tone down his extremism – “updating” his web site, nudge, nudge – in an effort to tickle fence-sitters. His scam is working, to the point of gaining praise from so-called and stupid conservative for his anti-corp/anti-vax schtick while they ignore his support for alt-energy frauds and his disparagement of ALL vaccines.

    So, he already has the far and near left in his pocket. The Dem power structure will have no problem kicking BJ aside and supporting him; he’s a rich white coasty just like them. And the middle will drool over his famous name.

    That adds up to disaster for any GOPer. Take yer pick.

  11. dad29

    He’s still E-Wacko. Here’s a quote from a recent interview:

    In terms of the carbon industry, all of the things that people are trying to do to promote — to end carbon, we should be doing anyway because, carbon means cutting down all the mountains in West Virginia. It means you know we polluted 2200 miles of rivers and streams in Eastern Kentucky and West Virginia. Every freshwater fish in America now has mercury in its flesh from coal-burning power plants. That is a theft from the public. The waterways and lakes on the Appalachian, on the high Appalachian, every one of them is now sterilized from acid rain.

    We need to be reducing — whether you believe in climate change or not — carbon-based climate change — we need to be reducing our dependence on carbon. Carbon receives globally about 5.2 trillion dollars in subsidies a year. If you end those subsidies, carbon cannot compete against more efficient and cleaner energy sources, and that’s what we should be doing; we should be ending subsidies for where all for the carbon industry. And we should be using true free market capitalism and trying the most efficient sources of energy.

    The “most efficient” sources of ELECTRICAL energy are one: nukes. As to powering motor vehicles, it sure as Hell is not batteries. His blather about strip-mining the tops off all the Appalachian mountains is strictly ’70’s, and ………let’s see what happens if Government REALLY removes ALL subsidies, eh?

  12. dad29

    the Democrat nominee will be Kennedy Jr.

    Possible, although Manchin and Bernie will fight like Hell to prevent that. But since he’s about as Far Left as Bai-Den’s staff…..

    So how will they persuade him to take out Putin?

  13. dad29

    But there is a problem with RFKjr: he won’t motivate blacks and Hispanics. It is a certainty that Bai-Den will not pull 81 million votes again; he may not even pull 60 million. So election fraud is his only chance to continue.

    While RFK will get the juices flowing in the Suburban Wine-Mom/Horny Housewife crowd, (pun fully intended) he must motivate the others to show up at the polls. His rhetoric is aimed at the upper-middle class……..

  14. Merlin

    Wouldn’t surprise me a bit if there was a significant outbreak of arkancide over the next year or so. There’s an awful lot that needs to be buried and/or stay buried.

  15. MjM

    But there is a problem with RFKjr: he won’t motivate blacks and Hispanics.

    Also from a recent interview…..

    “ My family has been deeply involved in the Civil Rights Movement, and I’ve been involved with environmental justice issues. My first case was representing the NAACP …..

    …..and I understand that there is institutional racism in our country. You see it in many police departments, although not all of them. Certainly not all police are racist, but it is a huge problem. Blacks in our country are living not only with the legacy of slavery, but the legacy of 100 years of Jim Crow, having their leaders systematically murdered — and then being redlined! …..

    I’ve sat for 20 years on the board of Bedford-Stuyvesant restoration [ a neighborhood in Brooklyn NY], which was the first community development corporation in our country. I watched that bring capital and mentorship into one of the poorest black communities in this country. We saw a renaissance in Bedford-Stuyvesant because of that. Black Americans want to feel represented, and I think a black child ought to be able to look at our Cabinet and our courts and be able to see a possibility of positions that they can aspire to. But I also think that our real target needs to be getting capital into those communities, making homeownership more widespread in those communities, reducing crime, making healthcare available, …”

    You can plainly see in those words the tactic Jr. will deploy; Iz alwaz bean fo Black Folk! . You know, just like BJ being at the forefront of Civil Rights. See how Jr. tries to prove his street cred by mentioning “ the first community development corporation in our country. ”. What he forgot (on purpose) to mention is that that Bedford-Stuyvesant development corp was founded and put in place by his father – in 1967 – when Jr. was 5 years old. And he also didn’t mention that during his 20 years on the board his favorite Black Neighborhood went from a population of 3% white to 30%.

  16. dad29


    We can agree that RFKJr will be formidable against Trump.

    We assume that he is the nominee. Not Harris, not Newsom, not Bernie. Against Biden, Trump remains very strong; not so sure about v. Newsom. Harris is a national joke. People will flee from her….

    But we haven’t decided what happens IF Third Party? Manchin……

    And of course, we haven’t a clue as to what the economy will be in 12-18 months.

  17. MjM

    what happens IF Third Party? Manchin……

    Feb 26…

    Q: Do you regret your vote for the Inflation Reduction Act last summer?
    Manchin: “No, not at all. The ‘Inflation Reduction Act’ will be the most transformative bill that we’ve ever had in the United States Congress as far as I’ve been there.”

    Manchin’s vote brought the total to a tie, then Harris stepped in to make it 51-50.

    Manchin is a confused idiot who is now talking just like Kennedy. He hasn’t announced yet, and frankly, I don’t think he ever will. He’s already facing a tough re-election for his current gig in 2024. But if he does pull another stupid and jump into the prez race he will suck a few votes from the Dem side only, and only on the east-ish coast because nobody else knows who he is. IOW, he is a nothingburger.

    You are correct about Harris. Nice Hair Newsom is already known country-wide as a hypocrite kid cutting fool, and Bernie 3House is a laughing stock even amongst the general population of commies (only the deep red loonies love him).

    I can’t wait for the Bidenless debate between Kennedy and Williamson. What a blast!

  18. dad29

    And Owen, my friend, go to this Bannon broadcast and start at 30:00. Rasmussen demolishes the “Trump ain’t popular” song being sung by Jay Weber and some others.

    Granted, those polls are national and the elction is state-by-state……but Trump has big numbers over Bai-Den.

  19. Merlin

    I don’t think there’s any security at all for Biden as an incumbent. His usefulness to his own party has expired and he’s refusing to exit the stage to allow a politically reasonable transition to a new puppet. This wasn’t in the original script. Joe publicly stated early on that he’d step aside when the time came. Failures are mounting and not even the accomplice media can ignore them anymore. He’s obviously incompetent and unfit. This game has run its course and coming to an ugly end.

    They’ve badly miscalculated by trying to make Harris the public face of policy failures. She was supposed to be the first expendable. She sounds dumb yet shows the survival skills of a cockroach. The opportunity to replace an intentionally failed Harris with an unelected puppet who could then replace Biden and assume an incumbent’s status never having faced voters is long gone. Now Joe’s priority is to stay long enough to legally pardon his wayward brothers and son. Satisfies the family interests, but not those of the party. I find it hard to believe the Biden family interests are going to win this one.

    By this time next year the entire political landscape in DC could look very different.

  20. dad29

    There is no way Harris will win an election. And it’s very, very hard to believe that RFKjr will be allowed to win the primaries; he’s not the property of Obama NOR of Hillary.

  21. Tuerqas

    Great food for thought guys, thanks.

  22. Merlin

    >There is no way Harris will win an election.

    Absolutely true, but she sure is in the way, eh? Not electable at the top of the ticket, yet one hell of an obstacle to move out of the way right now. Her ass is bolted to her seat. Joe not so much.

  23. dad29

    Yup. Buy popcorn futures!!

  24. MjM

    Wizard sees the future: By this time next year the entire political landscape in DC could look very different.

    Indeed, Harris, electable or not, may be the incumbent by that time, if not sooner.

    For two possible reasons…

    1) the complete disclosure of Biden Bribe criminality
    2) the final complete breakdown of the Biden Brain.

    Personally, I think #2 is the more likely scenario. I don’t think he can last another 18 months let alone 66. His dementia is obviously accelerating. Witness his now near daily incompressible babbling, repeating of known lies (and making up new), the confused wandering about, the lost words and blank stares. In the coming months they will have to hide him even more. Questions will be raised. And at some point, on some occasion when they have to let him out of the basement, he is going to go off full nutball for all to see. At that point, if Jill refuses to resign congress will have to act.

    #1 is going to take much longer… unless the evidence is so conclusive, massive, and blaring The DOJ is corrupt. The FBI is corrupt. They are headed and staffed by Clemenzas of Dem Corleone. And if what Comer is playing as Big Score is just another small piss in the wind the authoritative molasses will flow like it’s a cold day in January. It may anyway.

Pin It on Pinterest