Boots & Sabers

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1354, 24 Apr 20

COVID Having a Negligible Impact on Wisconsin’s Death Rate

I love data. It can tell you so much. Here are Wisconsin’s death statistics for the previous decade or so (2017 is the most recent year available)

Over that decade, Wisconsin averages about 49 thousand deaths from all causes per year. That is an average of about 4,095 deaths per month. I wish I could find monthly stats to adjust for seasonal variances, but I can’t. Anyway, looking over the time period, we averaged anywhere from an average of 3,800 deaths per month in 2009 to 4,390 deaths per month in 2017. That’s a monthly death rate of anywhere between 65.27 and 75.40 (rates are per 100,000 residents based on current estimate of a population of Wisconsin at 5,822,000).

What we don’t know is what the real-time death rate is right now in Wisconsin. Obviously, it varies due to all kinds of factors. If you look at the deaths from COVID in the state, we have had 257 as of yesterday. Those all came between the dates of March 20th and April 23rd – about a month. That equates to a monthly death rate of 4.41. In other words, the death rate from COVID is well within the normal rate variances that have always happened.

And this assumes that all of the deaths being counted as COVID deaths are incremental to the already existing death rate. As we know, many people are dying of heart attacks and whatnot and being counted as COVID deaths because the disease was present. In other words, we are not counting people who were killed BY COVID. We are counting people who died WITH COVID.

When all of this is over and we can crunch the data, I’m willing to bet a ham sammich that Wisconsin’s death rate for 2020 will not stick out as abnormal from the years surrounding it. The statistics that will stick out are job losses, business closures, bankruptcies, and foreclosures. Hey, I got the prediction that the Packers would draft a quarterback right. I am even more confident about this one.


1354, 24 April 2020


  1. Mar

    The number of people dying of just of the Corona virus is very small. Probably on par or even less with the flu, car accidents etc but we probably will never know, since they are not doing many autopsies. Look up the Milwaukee County ME’s twitter site to see their criteria is for doing autopsies on people who have or might not have the virus.
    It is also possible that are more deaths related to the lockdown, such as suicides, overdoses, people not going to the ER because they are afraid of the virus, etc than deaths caused just by the Corona Virus.

  2. jjf

    I think what you’re saying is that the lockdown has helped, so far.

  3. Mar

    Is there a way to prove it, jjf? Any tables, models?
    Or, it’s a way of saying that they are delaying deaths after the lockdown is lifted?
    Or is it easy of saying that the stats on the number actual Corana deaths pure poppycock?
    Or is it a way of saying that virus isn’t as bad as so called experts said it is, in various areas of the country?

  4. MjM

    Owen sez:  and being counted as COVID deaths because the disease was present.

    That may not be encompassing enough.

    Yes, the “experts” are falsely noting (on death certificates, even) CCPvirus  as THE culprit behind deaths when the disease is observable as one among one or several comorbitities.  But they may also be blaming CCPvirus when the disease is NOT observed

    To explain,  some people get Hay Fever.  Some don’t.  But everybody has the elements that cause Hay Fever stuck in their noses, throats, and lungs come spring time.

    IOW,  “CCPvirus” and “CCPvirus disease” are two separate things.

    You can have the virus but not the disease.   (This is true of many viruses and bacteria… your guts are home to many bacteria).  This is proven by the presence of CCPvirus antibodies in people who never showed any symptoms.

    So the question is, are they also including in the CCPvirus death counts those who have had the CCPvirus detected but not the actual disease?

    Then there is outright fraud.   NYC added 4000 –  who never tested positive – to their death count.  This fraud raised the US total 17%.







  5. jjf

    It’s all fake, Mar, just like the age of the Earth!  You can’t really prove anything, can you?

  6. Mar

    Troll jjf, I never said it was fake, though in my thoughts, i thought your brain was a fake. But now i realize, you don’t have a brain and your hero was the scarecrow in the Wizard of Oz, before he met the Wizard.
    Now I think your body is just being run by left hating, lying and racist Overlords.

  7. Mar

    Today Fox 6 Milwaukee reported that a nun died in a convent nursing home and she contracted the Chinese virus.
    She was 102 years old.
    And she counts as a Chinese virus death.
    In what sane world does that happen?

  8. MjM

    DMOTP Jiffy asks: You can’t really prove anything, can you?

    You proven yourself to be the DMOTP many many times.  So, yes, you can.

  9. Le Roi du Nord

    “The number of people dying of just of the Corona virus is very small. Probably on par or even less with the flu, car accidents etc but we probably will never know,…….”

    Here are some facts:

    2018 US traffic fatalities (National Safety Council)     39,404

    2020 US covid19 fatalities (CDC as of today 500PM our time)   51,516

    So in slightly less than 3 months covid19 has killed more that all the traffic fatalities in 2018.  Is that an acceptable number?  I suppose if you or yours aren’t one of the fatalities.

  10. Le Roi du Nord

    And there were 34,200 (estimated, source CDC) in the 2018-19 flu season.

  11. Mar

    Le ROI, that means that they had the virus when they died.
    That doesn’t mean the cause of death was the Chinese virus.
    The numbers are much much lower but we will never know.

  12. Le Roi du Nord

    Sure mar, deny away. You must struggle to be humble when you are smarter and more educated than the folks that do the analysis for a living.

    Amazing hubris on your part.

  13. dad29

    Ah, yes, “analysis for a living.”  Lemmeesee heah, Gomer, there will be 2,200,000 US deaths.  Or, well, hmmmm, maybe 240,000.  On the other hand, let’s analyze down to 80,000……nah, make it 64,000……..well, on the other hand, 60,000.

    Meanwhile, heart disease is …what…….350K?

    Anyhow, if “saving lives” is a measure of greatness, then Trump’s closing the China border on 1/31 probably saved 20,000,000 or so.

    Just like Tony’s closure will save……..ahh…….HOW many, LeeeeeeeeeRoy??

  14. Mar

    Ok, Uneducated Le Roi, then what is the actual number of people who were killed by the virus alone?

  15. Le Roi du Nord

    No at all, mar.  Or didn’t you note that, unlike hydrodoxychloroquine, the FDA granted approval for the tests.  That is the proper protocol.

    Hey, did you get your nomination in for the Noble prize for journalism yet.  Someone with your highly educated approval of junk science is sure to win..

  16. Mar

    Oh poor,poor Le Roi, the FDA already has approved the Trump drug for use in limited cases and under a close eye by doctors who prescribed it.
    And I am sure the FDA is doing studies on it.
    Again, how do you spell hypocrite?

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