Boots & Sabers

The blogging will continue until morale improves...


Everything but tech support.

0852, 26 Oct 20

Early Voting Turnout

The early voting turnout is huge, but I don’t know what it means yet.

The result is a total of 58.6 million ballots cast so far, more than the 58 million that The Associated Press logged as being cast through the mail or at in-person early voting sites in 2016.

Democrats have continued to dominate the initial balloting, but Republicans are narrowing the gap. GOP voters have begun to show up as early in-person voting, a sign that many heeded President Donald Trump’s unfounded warnings about mail-voting fraud.

On Oct. 15, Democrats registrants cast 51% of all ballots reported, compared with 25% from Republicans. On Sunday, Democrats had a slightly smaller lead, 51% to 31%.

The early vote totals, reported by state and local election officials and tracked by the AP, are an imperfect indicator of which party may be leading. The data only shows party registration, not which candidate voters support. Most GOP voters are expected to vote on Election Day.

EVERYBODY has been pushing early voting, so it’s not surprise that early voting turnout is huge. I suspect that most of the people who voted early were already motivated voters who already knew their choice. I expect undecided voters will come later. Will it impact overall voting patterns? That’s hard to tell. My decision to vote early or not is separate from my decision on which candidate to vote for.

I’m also not certain if the large early voting indicates a larger overall turnout. I expect turnout to be larger because of the heated election, but will it be historically as large as some of the pundits are projecting based on early voting totals? I doubt it. And whether or not turnout impacts the results depends on which state. California can turn out 100% and it still gives Biden the same number of electoral votes. In states like Texas, I would expect larger turnout to favor the Republicans. In Wisconsin, it probably favors Democrats. In Florida? Probably Republicans.

It’s going to be interesting…


0852, 26 October 2020


  1. Kevin Scheunemann

    Over 30% of electorate has voted in Village of Kewaskum already. We are a 75-80% Trump precinct.

    We have record registrations, 2800 total on voter roll now, up from about 2500 registrations previously. Census says there are about 3100 eligible voters in Village.

    I would not be surprised if we see a record of 2500 votes cast in the Village. If Trump maintains his 2016 % in Village, that is huge increased enthusiasm turnout for him. My household has 1 more Trump vote this time around, with child that turned 18 last year. I choked out a vote for Trump last time to save nation. I am enthusiastically saving nation in voting for Trump this time around.

  2. Jason

    Owen, 4 years is a long time ago for many simple-minded people.  I fully expect a number of people who reply here to start relying on polls to show Biden has an insurmountable lead.  The 2016 election and it’s failed polling is millennia ago to the oatmeal brains.

  3. Kevin Scheunemann

    Oh nord,

    Real clear Politics from last Friday has Biden only up 4.6% with a 4% margin of error.    That was better than where Trump was in same WI poll in 2016 at this stage.

    Biden’s lead has tightened, and even one could argue this poll has not yet captured the disaster of a debate for Biden.

    I hope you are not voting for senile old guy to be near nuclear button.   If you have death wish, leave rest of us out of it.

Pin It on Pinterest