Boots & Sabers

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Owen

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2100, 30 Oct 14

Turnout Expected at 57%

Not that their history with predicting these things is very accurate, but…

Statewide turnout in Tuesday’s election is expected to be the highest for a midterm election in at least 64 years, but still shy of the 2012 recall election, according to the state’s nonpartisan election agency.

The Government Accountability Board is predicting turnout will reach 2.5 million, or 56.5 percent of the state’s voting-age population.

That would be just short of the 57.8 percent turnout in the 2012 gubernatorial recall election, but far lower than the 70 percent turnout level for the 2012 presidential election, GAB director Kevin Kennedy noted.

The more I think about this election, the more I think that Walker is going to win handily. He beat Barrett in the recall election by 7 points. That was at a time when passions were at the absolute highest on both sides. In the macro sense, nothing has really changed since then. No significant legislation has been passed. No major shifts have happened in the economy or employment picture. There haven’t been any major scandals. There are no major shifts in any of the key dynamics since the recall election.

Also, Burke is a far weaker candidate than Barrett. Barrett was a well-known former Congressman and mayor of Wisconsin’s largest city. He was well-liked and was well-funded for the election. By contrast, Burke came into the race as an unknown with no elected experience (save a short stint on a school board) and a sketchy¬†resume.

Without anything shifting, I have a hard time picturing any voter having changed their mind about Walker since the recall election. The people who hate him do so just as much as they did in 2012. The people who support him do so just as much as they did in 2012. If everyone just shows up and votes like they did in the recall election, Walker wins easily. And in this case, the weak candidacy of Burke will likely keep a fair number of independents and core Democratic constituencies from turning out in great fashion.

Predictions are always iffy, but put me down for a Walker win. If I have to put a number on it, I’ll say Walker 54, Burke 46.

That being said… get out there and vote, folks.

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2100, 30 October 2014

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