Boots & Sabers

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1629, 05 Nov 18

Election Predictions

Right Wisconsin is out with their pundit panel of predictions. I’m horrible at predictions, but I am feeling optimistic about tomorrow’s results. Perhaps that optimism is irrational, but I’m in line with this prediction:

James Wigderson: Looking into the crystal martini pitcher, I think my prediction from the beginning of the year stands. Governor Scott Walker will win narrowly despite the last-minute claim by Tony Evers he will not raise taxes. Looking at the right track – wrong track numbers, it’s hard to see a scenario where Walker loses.

Unfortunately, Walker’s win is too narrow to help state Sen. Leah Vukmir (R-Brookfield). The hope that a Republican woman candidate could negate the gender gap has not borne out and Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D), one of the most liberal U.S. Senators, will win re-election pretty handily. Republicans will wonder how they let Baldwin win.

Attorney General Brad Schimel will actually have the best night of the GOP candidates, getting a higher percentage of the vote than Walker. Josh Kaul will move to Washington after the election. Democrat Sarah Godlewski will defeat Republican Travis Hartwig for state treasurer.

In other races, voters in the 1st congressional district will reject Randy Bryce, leaving Democrats to wonder why they nominated the wrong candidate. Every other member of Congress from Wisconsin wins re-election, including Rep. Glenn Grothman. Republicans hold onto the Wisconsin Senate by one vote and lose four Assembly seats. Former state Rep. André Jacque is unsuccessful in his attempt to defeat Sen. Caleb Frostman, but state Rep. Dale Kooyenga (R-Brookfield) prevails in the ugliest election of this cycle.

Then again, Wiggy is almost as bad as I am at predictions.


1629, 05 November 2018


  1. Kevin Scheunemann

    I hope wiggy is right this time.

  2. MjM


    RCP avg, 2016

    Clinton +6.7 Result: Trump +.7
    Fiengold +2.7 Result: Johnson +3.4

    Ignore screwy polls from NBC/Marist. In fact, ignore all polls and just go vote.

  3. Kevin Scheunemann

    Village of Kewaskum had record advanced voting, 387 ballots, which is 15%+ of total registered voters.

    The Village has been close to 80% for Walker in past (and 76% for Trump).

    That is a good sign for Republican turnout.

  4. Pat

    I’m very happy so far with the overall turnout of young people. There are areas throughout the country where there evidently aren’t enough voting machines setup to meet the demand, but it’s heartening that Americans are willing to stand in line for up to three hours to cast their vote. Very impressive for a midterm.

  5. Le Roi du Nord

    Preliminary numbers show we had 75+% turnout in our township.  Amazing show of voters. I don’t know what the official results were on statewide races, but I’m pretty sure it will be different R vs D than in 2016.

    Forward !


  6. dad29

    We note that the Old-Establishment Wiggy did rather poorly at the top of the ticket AND in his call on Jacque.

    But that’s OK.  Romney won in Utah!!  Dinosaur Pubbies will have a home.

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