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2114, 31 Oct 18

Final Marquette Poll Before Election

As everyone has predicted for months… it’s going to come down to the wire and turnout will determine the outcome. All of the candidates should be spending their time getting their supporters to vote instead of trying to convince people to change their minds.

MILWAUKEE – A new Marquette Law School Poll of Wisconsin voters finds a tie in the state’s race for governor, with incumbent Republican Scott Walker and Democrat challenger Tony Evers each receiving 47 percent support among likely voters. Libertarian candidate Phil Anderson receives 3 percent, and only 1 percent say they lack a preference or do not lean to a candidate. One percent declined to respond to the question. Likely voters are defined as those who say they are certain to vote in the Nov. 6 election. In the most recent Marquette Law School Poll, conducted Oct. 3-7, Walker was supported by 47 percent, Evers by 46 percent and Anderson by 5 percent among likely voters.

In the race for Wisconsin’s U.S. Senate seat, Democratic incumbent Tammy Baldwin leads among likely voters with 54 percent supporting her, while 43 percent support Republican challenger Leah Vukmir. Only 2 percent say they lack a preference or do not lean toward a candidate and 1 percent did not respond. In early October, Baldwin was supported by 53 percent and Vukmir by 43 percent.

In the race for Wisconsin attorney general, Republican incumbent Brad Schimel is the choice of 47 percent and Democrat Josh Kaul is the choice of 45 percent of likely voters. Seven percent lack a preference in this race and 2 percent did not respond. In the early October poll, Schimel held 47 percent and Kaul 43 percent of likely voters.


2114, 31 October 2018


  1. Recess Supervisor

    “it’s going to come down to the wire and turnout will determine the outcome.”

    Unless you’re Leah Vukmir. Then you should probably quit and go home before you do any more damage.

    Don’t get me wrong, I think Kevin Nicholson would’ve lost too. But he’d have been a lot more competitive than Leah has been, especially outstate. Golf clap for the WOW counties there, who were too prideful and blind to figure out what everyone else already knew about Leah – she’s a terrible candidate with the personality of a Brillo pad. Y’all passed on an an articulate, attractive, Ivy League-educated Bronze Star recipient to nominate Nurse Ratched. Brilliant stuff.

    And wouldn’t be ironic if Vukmir’s weakness as a candidate when compared to Baldwin is actually the thing that gets Tony Evers across the finish line? That the real coattails on the ballot end up belonging to Tammy Baldwin – who is going to run up a bigger vote total than any other statewide candidate, and will way overperform any reasonable expectation for a Democrat outstate Madison and Milwaukee?

    That Vukmir’s sheer awfulness as a candidate could actually help to take out Walker – a guy who I’ll gladly acknowledge has run a really smart race in the face of massive Trump-scented headwinds? Oh man, that’d be so rich, right?

  2. Kevin Scheunemann

    I hope Vukmir upsets, that would make my day.

  3. jjf

    And yet there are so many conservatives who seem to love Vukmir’s awfulness, Recess.  Why is that?

  4. Paul

    Wonder how funny chubby Gruber would like it if Keith Ellison were so awful, it netted Minnesota a GOP Senator…

  5. jjf

    I think your speech-to-text is malfunctioning today, Paul.  What was your point?

  6. Recess Supervisor

    Just my take, JJF, but Leah was an early adopter of the take-no-prisoners rhetoric that has come to exemplify a certain wing of the GOP. So to some extent, especially in the former Kingdom of Talk Radio, I think there’s an irrational loyalty to her. People in the WOW counties walked off the ledge for her when someone behaving rationally would’ve recognized that Kevin Nicholson was all the same stuff in a vastly better package (and heck, he lives in Delafield, so it’s not even like asking these folks to support a candidate who lives outstate).

    Voting for Leah over Nicholson is like living in a Netflix world but casting a ballot for Betamax. Beta still gets the job done, but that doesn’t mean it’s a good choice going forward.

    But both sides do this. Two years ago the Democrats got drunk on nostalgia for Russ Feingold, who proceeded to run one of the laziest, most entitled campaigns ever witnessed. Or Tommy in 2012, same story. Old loyalties die hard sometimes.

  7. jjf

    Yup.  Her Nurse Ratched routine got her this far.  Owen’s a big fan of her.

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