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0808, 06 Nov 23

EV Supply Outstrips Demand

One wonders if EV demand has already peaked until there is a leap in the technology or it becomes significantly less expensive.

While there are positive signs in the electric vehicle market, supply is still far outstripping demand.


“The demand is not keeping up with production, which is the opposite story of a year ago,” Cox Automotive executive analyst Michelle Krebs told Grist. “We call it the ‘Field of Dreams’ moment. Automakers are building more, but not enough consumers have come to the field.”


But Krebs also observed that availability isn’t such a bad thing when compared to the wider market.


“A year ago, the average EV price was above the average luxury vehicle price. Today, as inventory and availability build, EV prices are moving closer to the industry average,” Krebs added.

Much of the societal angst for and against EVs is because there is a vanguard of people out there who insist that they are the future for everyone. EVs have become imbued with, ironically, environmental symbolism and represent a statement as much as a vehicle.

Reality is always different. I know a lot of people who love their EVs, but they have a lifestyle that allows for it. They have home chargers and don’t drive a lot. An EV wouldn’t work for my lifestyle. They don’t work for a lot of people, which is why forcing them into the market is causing so much angst.


0808, 06 November 2023


  1. jonnyv

    I don’t believe that the demand has peaked, I think that the manufacturers have not understood the type of people who want one. The demand of people who want an F150 electric vehicle is small. Many people don’t want the luxury EVs. Many of us just want a very small 25-35K dollar EV. Something with 250 miles of range. More of the Chevy Bolt ones or Tesla Model 3s. But of course there is less profit in those types of vehicles than the luxury EVs.

    And the industry is in a flux right now with the charging stations and standardizations. Many of the manufacturers have announced they are going with the Tesla charger, but won’t get them integrated for another year or two. So I bet that a lot of people might be hesitant to buy an EV with an already outdated charging plug that you may have to have an adapter for.

    EVs are the future, but there are still wrinkles to get ironed out and technologies to advance.

  2. Owen

    You may be right. Market penetration for EVs is still relatively small even with the massive marketing and regulatory push. There’s a lot of upside.

  3. Merlin

    The current EV battery tech is a rapidly growing pain point without a solution.

    The auto insurance industry is re-assessing the risk-sharing of coverage for EVs due to the growing trend of low mileage vehicles being written off with minor damage, primarily due to the fact that there is no way to repair or even assess damage to battery packs that can cost tens of thousands of dollars to replace. Not totaling an EV means an insurance company would assume risk of lawsuit if a battery becomes an issue later on… and they’re not going to assume such risk without the revenue to cover it. As the pool of risk-sharing shrinks the price of coverage charged to EV owners will continue to climb.

    Ford and GM are working on repairable battery packs, but repair price projections are still expected to be nearly cost prohibitive. Tesla, on the other hand, has taken the Tesla Y in the opposite direction by incorporating the battery pack into the car’s structure… making it very difficult to remove or replace. A Tesla Y with collision damage will likely head straight to a salvage company rather than a repair shop. That kind of progress I can do without.

  4. Owen

    We have moved past the visionaries and early adopters. Now we are in the mainstream of adoption where practical matters play a much larger role. You bring up good points… beyond the car itself, many of us consider things like cost of insurance, resale value, cost to maintain (EVs are typically lower here), cost to operate (EVs are roughly break-even here depending on usage), and cost to repair. Buying a car is the second-most expensive thing most people buy in their lifetimes and stupid decisions will eat your disposable income.

  5. dad29

    cost to maintain (EVs are typically lower here)

    Really? At Year Eight, or maybe Year 10, you replace the battery. That’s about $10 large or more–but let’s say $10K.

    That’s $1200/year in unrecognized maintenance cost. If you change the oil every 5K in a ICE vehicle, at $50/change, you can drive for a very, very, long time before you hit $1200.00 in oil changes.

    By the way, insurers are demanding that dealers keep their EV inventory outdoors. NEVER inside the building. Think that won’t happen to homeowners in the near future?

    cost to operate (EVs are roughly break-even here depending on usage),

    Well, if you don’t count how much it costs NON-EV people in government subsidies and infrastructure build, yes. But it is definitely NOT cheaper to operate, all-in. There’s a study from Texas which maintains that the actual “Per-Gallon” price equivalent–all-in–is $17.33/gal. EV users can thank the rest of us for their humungous subsidy.

    JonnyV: I think that the manufacturers have not understood the type of people who want one.

    Wrong. They understand very well, but your Federal (and State) poohbahs are requiring Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE) numbers which effectively force manufacturers to spread the EV’s into all categories of vehicles. All.

    “relatively spacious interior, fun-to-drive nature and solid amount of range. Those qualities are still present with the latest Bolt, and they’re joined by a nicer interior and excellent value. A mediocre ride quality and relatively slow DC fast charging are drawbacks, but overall the Bolt is a smart pick for a low-priced EV.”–Edmunds

    As a grocery-getter or short-commute vehicle they are OK. Nice, not bare-bones or ultra-lux is $29K or so. So yes, the price is right. But they are damn small cars. Better not have a kid who plays hockey or even football….;

  6. Owen

    I have a buddy who has one of the nice Teslas with the gull wing doors. He loves it, but says it is fantastic tech encased in an okay car.

  7. MjM

    cost to maintain (EVs are typically lower here)

    Um, EVers spent way more than ICE maintenance costs the moment they bought their EV.

    Ex. 2024 Chevy Blazer $38K. 2024 Blazer EV $54K

    And that ain’t all of it, as Daddio suggests…

    At Year Eight, or maybe Year 10, you replace the battery.

    Meanwhile, the existing battery will lose 30% capacity over that time period, meaning ever-increasing charging time/costs.

    An EV will require 2 or more sets of tires – depending on the EV model – over its lifetime. Why? Because they weigh up to 35% more than their ICE counterparts.

    Ex. 2024 Chevy Blazer 3,900lbs 2024 Blazer EV 5,600lbs

    That’s 300lbs of extra weight pressure on each gripper. You can beef up the suspension and linkage all you want (which, of course, adds to the weight issue and the initial EV high cost) but you can’t get away from more weight=more friction=more wear.

    EVs are the future

    Indeed, while Kalifornia tells its EVers not to charge because Kalifornia forces scant electricity .

    The EV future is a dim bulb.

  8. jonnyv

    MJM. yes, the weight is much more apparent in the trucks. Not nearly as much in the smaller vehicles.

    And as far as battery replacement costs. Currently you are looking at anywhere from 10-20K depending on the vehicle. Some are cheaper, but not many. But, I would assume that the price on those will go down significantly in the next 7-10 years as production increases. I don’t think I would factor that into the cost personally.

    And oil changes are just one aspect of maintenance. No exhaust system. No filters. No spark plugs. But certainly, they are more upfront. At this point, no one is buying an EV because it will “save them money”. If it were all about money, everyone should be looking at used cars anyway. That is the most value minded option. Yet new & luxury cars continue to sell.

    California’s electric grid is a mess. Much like Texas.

  9. dad29

    I would assume that the price on those will go down significantly in the next 7-10 years as production increases

    Nope. With these batteries, it’s the cost of materials, not production inefficiency. If anything, the cost will go UP unless there’s a change in material requirements or composition. By the way, “spark plugs” are now a 100,000 mile item, and “oil change” includes the oil filter.

    The Texas grid is a mess because it’s “green,” friend. No matter that “Republicans” are the utility-masters; they’re GWB Republicans, not to be confused with intelligent life nor Conservatives. California is worse because that’s a (D)-run State and has been for 20 years. And Wisconsin will be in the same boat in 10 years or so.

  10. MjM

    the weight is much more apparent in the trucks. Not nearly as much in the smaller vehicles

    The Blazer is a midsize SUV, not a truck. And your favorite teeny-tiny Bolt weighs 1100lbs more than the very similar-size ICE Honda Fit.

    In fact, your teeny-tiny Bolt weighs just 250lbs less than the midsize ICE Blazer.

    Thats a lot of weight on those teeny-tiny tires.

    And FWIW, Kalifornia is proposing flat rate electric charges based on income. Meaning Kalifonians would pay a flat monthly charge no matter how much – or how little – electricity they use. The more you make the higher your monthly charge. And it doesn’t matter if they brown you out for a day or two. Kalifornia Kommunism at it’s finest.

  11. jonnyv

    Cali’s grid is the F’ed up thing. Not just their practices. Much like TX, their grid isn’t up to par with what it should be. And both seem to fight tooth and nail against residential solar buy-back programs.

    Dad29. Tesla has an air filter. ICE vehicles usually have 4 (air, cabin, oil, & fuel). And as far as TX grid. They run mostly off of natural gas and wind. And the renewables helped save TX during this past summer. They can build solar much faster than any other source and with the influx of people, it is quite literally the only way they kept up. But TX’s main problem is their lack of weatherization coupled with their grid independence without a backup.

    I guess we will just wait and see for the batteries. They are about 1/3 of the price they were 10 years ago. That curve is flattening out, but I wouldn’t be surprised if they dropped another 25% in 10 years. Or, if there is battery technology advancements.

  12. Tuerqas

    > And both seem to fight tooth and nail against residential solar buy-back programs.

    If Californians do start paying based on income, an electricity buyback and private solar power itself will be meaningless, won’t it?
    Imagine having an electricity surplus even with only EVs in your garage and the Fascists in power tell you start paying for electricity based on your salary. I am curious how that ‘Democratic legislation’ will read.

  13. MjM

    Correct, Mr. T., as it stands. Such that the 10 or 15 grand you spent on your home solar system has an ROI of never. Genius, eh?

    Tesla has an air filter.

    For what?

    ICE vehicles usually have 4 (air, cabin, oil, & fuel)

    The cost of those filters (not counting Bidenflation) over ten years is around $550. Subtract that from the extra $10,000 you paid for your teeny-tiny Bolt over a teeny-tiny Fit and see what’s left over.

  14. jonnyv

    MJM. Tesla has always sold the air filter as a quality-of-life improvement. Filter out external pollution, pollen, road dust, etc. It is a true high quality HEPA N98 filter. Much better than your standard cabin filter. As a guy who can occasionally suffer from allergies, I would appreciate it. It isn’t exactly necessary, but just a very small bonus.

  15. dad29

    Well, DAMN!!

    I never thought about that.

    Makes a compelling case to buy one!

  16. MjM

    Um, you can get HEPA cabin filters for any vehicle. But you’ll be replacing them three times as often.

    Air filters, not so much.

  17. jonnyv

    MJM. You are correct that you can get HEPA cabin filters. I don’t own a Tesla, don’t know if I ever will. But my understanding is that the fans that push the air thru are more powerful to better accommodate the HEPA filters, unlike most ICE vehicles. Frankly, as always, we have veered off the original path.

    And if you want to look at their “Bioweapon” mode results…

  18. dad29

    The fans come from the “Super Blaster” company.

  19. MjM

    Frankly, as always, we have veered off the original path.

    Every point I’ve made has been regarding spec and cost comparatives. But I’ll play…

    From the Tesla article : “ We wanted to ensure that it captured fine particulate matter and gaseous pollutants, as well as bacteria, viruses, pollen and mold spores.. You can literally survive a military grade bio attack by sitting in your car.“


    HEPA does not block “gaseous pollutants”. It does not capture most viruses. The chart they show lists only numbers regarding particulates.

    You may be able to cruise through a cloud of anthrax dust but the hydrogen cyanide gas will getcha.

    If the ozone doesn’t first.

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