Boots & Sabers

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Owen

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1900, 22 Jun 22

Kleefisch and Michels in Dead Heat

Interesting readout from the latest Marquette Poll

Michels and Kleefisch are tied. What’s interesting is where Michels’ support so far has come from. Ramthun and Nicholson are virtually the same. They clearly have a loyal, if small, support base that isn’t moving off of them. Of Michels 27% support, 14 points came from the pool of undecided and 6 points came from Kleefisch.

It appears that there was a portion of the Republican base that was undecided because they were unhappy with all of the candidates. About a third of them came off the fence to support Michels. And almost 20% of Kleefisch’s support has fled to Michels. This is after a major media blitz by Michels without anyone really going negative on him.

Now what? My guess is that the people who are planning to vote for Ramthun and Nicholson don’t move. They may bleed a point or two one way or the other, but they appear to have peaked. That leaves about 85% of the GOP base for Michels and Kleefisch to fight for. They will need about 42%-44% of the vote to win a plurality.

At this point, I don’t think that Michels or Kleefisch can take votes away from the other. Their core bases are set. That means that the only pool of votes to get are the remainder of the undecideds. I also don’t think that the remaining undecideds will break from Ramthun or Nicholson in any great numbers. Those two candidates have very specific messages and if they were going to work on an undecided primary voter at this point, it would have. That means that Kleefisch or Michels will have to win over half of the remaining undecideds to win.

So the real question is, why are those primary voters still undecided? What are they waiting for? What are they not finding in the existing slate of candidates? The first candidate who figures that out will win.

 

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1900, 22 June 2022

6 Comments

  1. Merlin

    I’m not sure there needs to be a frontrunner this far out and I would mildly disagree that either Kleefisch or Michels has a base that wouldn’t move on them if either were to stumble significantly (and going negative would be a big one). Most people I talk with have a preference between the two for a pretty wide variety of reasons, but when asked pointedly say they’re just fine with either. I kinda like not having to hold my nose to vote this time around, so I’m enjoying this maybe a bit more than I should be. Makes me wonder if the undecideds feel much the same way.

  2. Owen

    I’ve heard the same thing and I agree. It’s nice to have good candidates from which to choose. I do think that if anyone goes really negative, it will backfire spectacularly. There is no stomach for that this time around except for the most hardened acolytes.

  3. jonnyv

    I have no dog in this fight, as I won’t vote for either of them in the general election. But Michaels comes off as a d-bag in his commercials. The first commercial I saw from him a few weeks ago (pre Trump endorsement), I just didn’t like his attitude or general presence. He looked awkward with his hands and posture. And honestly the things he said just came off as “I want to be able to offend people because I can! And I have no experience!”

    I don’t know who Evers will have an easier time against. A guy with no experience who comes off as awkward (and barely lives in the state apparently), or a career politician in Kleefish. I think Kleefish has a better chance against Evers.

    **Personal sidenote. I absolutely HATE when I see political commercials where someone is driving and talking to the camera. All I can think is, “KEEP YOUR EYES ON THE ROAD!!!” Michaels had a commercial like that and I have seen others. I highly doubt they paid for a proper towing rig to film him while he did that commercial. Maybe he did??? (Probably not)

  4. dad29

    Evers is running against Biden, friend. Not Michels, nor any other Republican. Watch the commercials bind him to Biden with duct-tape once the primary is done.

    As to whether Michels is ‘fixed’ in his percentage: why? He jumped in only a few weeks ago and banged up to 27 without any glad-handing or “listening” sessions. That means he has MO, which Rebecca does NOT have.

    Yes it’s close.

  5. Tuerqas

    Whoever lefties seem to hate more is likely the better candidate;).

  6. Merlin

    Both Kleefisch and Nicholson have decided to start ripping on Michels. Sweet Becky has taken to calling Michels “Gas Tax” Tim Michels. I guess we know who they think is the frontrunner.

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