I think it’s more likely than not that China makes a hard play for Taiwan within the next year.
Taiwan has reported a large incursion by Chinese warplanes for the second day running, a show of force that coincides with the first days of US President Joe Biden’s term of office.
Sunday’s operation involved 15 aircraft and followed a similar drill that led to a warning from Washington.
China sees democratic Taiwan as a breakaway province, but Taiwan sees itself as a sovereign state.
Analysts say China is testing the level of support of Mr Biden for Taiwan.