The Myth of Massive Turnout

Yes, it’s a myth.  This election didn’t bring a substantially greater number of people to the polls.

Curtis Gans, one expert on voter turnout, indicates in a new report that based on preliminary, conservative estimates, the turnout among those eligible to vote will be in line with those of 2004 or at most, 1 percentage point higher. Why? This year’s numbers are almost a “mirror” image of the last presidential election; this time fewer Republicans went to the polls and more Democrats turned out.

Looking at it another way, of citizens eligible, those voting Republican were down 1.3 percent from 2004, while those voting Democratic were up about 2.6 percent.

The study projects that a total of 126.million up to 128.5 million, or somewhere in the neighborhood of 60.7 percent to 61.7 percent of those eligible to vote will have cast ballots this year. If that rises to more than 61 percent, the report says, that would be the highest voter turnout rate since 1964.

This election appears to have been the same as 2004 - a turnout election.  The Dems did a better job turning out than the GOP.  Given the dissatisfaction that much of the GOP base felt with their nominee, this was not unexpected. 

It goes back to the old adage that the candidate needs to give people a reason to vote for him or her.