Saturday, August 30, 2008

Zogby: Dead Heat

What bounce?

The latest nationwide survey, begun Friday afternoon after the McCain announcement of Palin as running mate and completed mid-afternoon today, shows McCain/Palin at 47%, compared to 45% support for Obama/Biden.

In other words, the race is a dead heat.

(10) Comments
Posted by Owen at 2215 hrs
Politics + Politics - General

  1. I’m not getting too excited yet. That was his interactive polling where people can sign up to be part of it on email.  I don’t think this poll was done using his regular polling techniques. 

    That said, let’s see what the polling on Mon-Tues bring. McCain managed to energize the base massively with this pick.

    Posted by .(JavaScript must be enabled to view this email address) on August 30, 2008 at 2225 hrs


  2. As much as I like Zogby, follow Real Clear politics. The poll seems to be the outlier.

    Posted by .(JavaScript must be enabled to view this email address) on August 30, 2008 at 2243 hrs


  3. Hi Keith,

    Still looking for an intellectual debate?

    The interactive survey shows that 22% of those voters who supported Democrat Hillary Clinton in their primary elections or caucus earlier this year are now supporting John McCain.

    No. That’s not significant. It’s an outlier. Even though your latest polls don’t have Friiday’s data reported yet.

    And your intellectual argument is what?

    Posted by .(JavaScript must be enabled to view this email address) on August 31, 2008 at 0011 hrs


  4. It’s interesting to note that Democrats are constantly talking about how conventional polling woefully underrepresents liberal-leaning voters, because many of them are young and hip and don’t have land lines.  Yet what happens when Zogby runs a poll that relies on the internets, where twenty-something liberals spend 24 hours a day posting to Daily Kos and Republican oldsters and rural voters are scant in quantity?  McCain’s up 2 head-to-head.

    I don’t necessarily place a lot of stock in an internet poll, though when properly sampled, it shouldn’t produce any more or less variance than a phone poll.  This is just a curious sort of coincidence, one that certainly got a chuckle out of me.

    Posted by Recess Supervisor on August 31, 2008 at 0231 hrs


  5. Because many of those were Republicans in the first place. Hope that doesn’t strain your “intellectual” brain.

    In the meantime we are picking up a lot of younger voters, hispanics and blacks. We are winning big time among women.

    Posted by .(JavaScript must be enabled to view this email address) on August 31, 2008 at 0645 hrs


  6. Actually Keith - the latest is that the O-Messiah and the Retread for change are not up with women as much as you would like them to be.  Especially the over-40 crowd without big fancy degrees.  You know - the working soccer Mom type that is a pretty reliable voter.  Just like you-know-who   cheese

    Posted by .(JavaScript must be enabled to view this email address) on August 31, 2008 at 1133 hrs


  7. We’ll let the polls sort themselves out. The exit polls in 2004 had Kerry winning big as well.

    All I know is that 48 hours ago, most conservatives were frustrated, embarrassed, demoralized or whatever term you want to use regarding Bush.  And they hadn’t really gotten excited about McCain. 

    In the last 48-hours the base has come alive like it did in 2004.  Whether come November that will be enough, I don’t know.  But it’s a better place for conservatives than where we were.

    And now we’ve got a small but meaningful percentage of the female Hillary voters who are going to go into that voting booth and quite possibly pull the McCain-Palin lever because they want to see the first woman VP. 

    Are the “Eleanor Clifts” of the world going to do that?  Of course not, since they don’t really care about advancement of “women” as much as they do about liberal orthodoxy.  But there will be a meaningful percentage of independent women/working moms who now might cross over.  That is a significant development.

    Posted by .(JavaScript must be enabled to view this email address) on August 31, 2008 at 1137 hrs


  8. National polls mean nothing for a presidental race.

    How are the states leaning is the real question. Plus its just too early - the Repubs haven’t even had their convention yet, and we haven’t had any debates either.

    Posted by .(JavaScript must be enabled to view this email address) on August 31, 2008 at 2237 hrs


  9. I think is to early to make our favorites in this race, but we have to be patient and see what moves are the candidates doing to gain the favor of people.

    Posted by Motorcycle Fairings on September 12, 2008 at 0940 hrs


  10. “Still looking for an intellectual debate?”

    I think its kind of hard to take some seriously who’s email address is listed as:

    .(JavaScript must be enabled to view this email address).

    This could just be an outlier, of this blog though..

    Posted by .(JavaScript must be enabled to view this email address) on September 12, 2008 at 1106 hrs


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