After the 365 AD quake, the fault is likely to remain quiet for around 5,000 years.
But if the tectonic structure along the rest of the Hellenic subduction zone is similar, a tsunami-generating quake could strike the eastern Mediterranean in roughly 800 years, the scientists estimate.
The last tsunami to hit the eastern Mediterranean occurred on August 8, 1303. According to research published in 2006, a quake off Crete of about 7.8 magnitude hit Alexandria 40 minutes later with a wave nine metres (29.25 feet) high.
“That there has been only one other such event… in the past 1,650 years should focus our attention on the modern-day tsunami hazard in the eastern Mediterranean,” the new study, published in the journal Nature Geoscience, warns.
“Repetition of such an event would have catastrophic consequences for today’s densely-populated Mediterranean coastal regions.”
Remind me not to take a vacation then.
So they can predict this and cannot predict the weather 60 days out?