Thinking About the Supreme Court

I know it’s early to think about, but it’s time.  Next year, Wisconsin will face another hotly contested Supreme Court election.  In the balance is the direction of the court.  Right now, there are three conservative justices, three liberal justices, and on malleable judge.  Next year, Justice Butler comes up for election and he is quite vulnerable.

Butler is a liberal who ran for the court a few years ago.  He lost nearly 2-to-1 in that election.  But when Justice Sykes was appointed to the federal bench, it left an opening on the court.  Governor Doyle appointed Butler to Sykes’ former seat.  Butler is vulnerable on a number of fronts.  First, he is a liberal justice who was complicit in a number of the courts recent horrible decisions.  Second, he lost in a landslide last time, proving that he doesn’t do well on the campaign trail.  Third, even though he’s a sitting justice, his name ID is very low.  This leaves open a lot of opportunity for a challenger who isn’t necessarily know statewide. 

So… who can challenge Butler?  I have heard a number of names tossed about in some circles and I have some suggestions of my own.  To my knowledge, only a couple of these people are known to have expressed an interest in the race.  Let’s take a look at a few options (note: I’m just looking at the politics, not whether or not the person would be a good justice):

Paul Bucher.

I have heard Bucher’s name a couple of times.  At first glance, a Bucher candidacy holds a few benefits.  He just ran a state-wide campaign, so his name ID is decent.  He presumably has a base in SE Wisconsin - the same as Butler.  Bucher is also known as a hard “law and order” kind of guy, which voters tend to like in judges.  Plus, in the same election, Scott Walker will be on the ballot and will likely bump conservative turnout in Milwaukee County, thus boosting any conservative judicial candidacy. 

But Bucher also has a lot of downside.  He has developed a fair number of enemies within the GOP.  This will hurt his ability to recruit volunteers and donors.  In the AG race, Bucher took many stands on public policy issues from illegal immigration to concealed carry.  Many of these issues are likely to come before the court in one form or another.  All of these statements will be pulled up by the Butler campaign and used to portray Bucher as being too biased on too many issues to be an impartial judge.  I pity any potential campaign manager for Bucher in responding to those claims. 

In a more general sense, a Bucher candidacy has some other red flags.  For instance, despite Bucher’s “base” being in SE Wisconsin, he lost all but two SE Wisconsin counties to Van Hollen in the primary… and he only won Milwaukee County by 22 votes.  I think that the “Bucher Base” is somewhat of a fiction.  Also, there is the general problem with Bucher having never been a judge.  In the Ziegler/Clifford race, some of the more effective ads were those that touted Ziegler’s 10 years on the bench and derided Clifford’s non-existent judicial experience.  While I agree that judicial experience shouldn’t be a prerequisite to being on the court, the reality is that it appeals to voters.  But this lack of judicial experience is a problem shared by some of the other potential candidates. 

Milwaukee Circuit Court Judge Michael B. Brennan.

Brennan is an attractive candidate.  He has judicial experience, which will play well in TV ads.  He has a good judicial record that shows him to be tough on crime.  Yes, I know that being “tough on crime” is not the end all be all of being a Supreme Court Justice, but it plays well for a judicial candidate.  Like Butler, he hails from Milwaukee County and should be able to gather a healthy number of votes in Milwaukee.

My concern with Brennan (barring any unknown scandal) is he has a low name ID.  Outside of SE Wisconsin, nobody knows him.  Even though Butler has a similar name ID, Butler has the benefit of having “(inc.)” after his name.  When people don’t know either candidate, they tend to vote for the incumbent. 

Waukesha County Circuit Court Judge Ralph M. Ramirez

Ramirez has a good history of solid rulings.  Also, like Brennan, he can bring judicial experience to the campaign.  People like seeing judicial candidates standing in a black robe. 

Furthermore, you might have noticed the name “Ramirez.”  One of Butler’s likely campaign tactics will be to tout himself as the “first African-American on the Wisconsin Supreme Court.”  As a racial minority, Ramirez effectively negates this avenue of racial campaigning.  I know it shouldn’t matter, but the reality is… it does. 

The downsides are the same as Brennan.  No Name ID. 

Vince Biskupic.

VINCE… not STEVE… Vince ran for AG in 2002.  He lost, but not by much.  Vince hails from the Fox Valley and was the Outagamie DA, so he should gather a fair number of votes from there.  Also, his brother’s name is well known in serious political circles (those most likely to vote in a Spring election) and this should help him in SE Wisconsin - especially among the conservative base. 

Vince shouldn’t suffer the same downside of name ID.  People might vaguely remember the name from the 2002 election, plus people are likely to remember the name from the recent kerfuffle with his brother. 

Vince does have a downside.  There were a number of accusations about him from his time as the Outagamie County DA that he was lenient on those who donated money to various court or police programs.  Although no charges were ever brought and it is evident that Vince was well within his legal prerogative to make the deals, in a political campaign, that’s likely to get lost in the shuffle. 

Summary.

I’m sure there are other candidates out there.  As for me, I’d love to see Vince Biskupic run.  Not only do I like him, he’s in the strongest political position to win.  Barring that, Brennan is my second choice.  He seems like a good judge who would be a good justice.  He has the experience and the right intangibles.  Whoever it is, it’s getting very close to the time that someone needs to step forward and start campaigning. 

1. I’m going to write in Dawn Marie Sass.  When in doubt, vote for someone who can get you a Boston Store discount.

   Posted by (JavaScript must be enabled to view this email address) on May 08, 2007 at 2058 hrs




2. I agree that Paul Bucher burned a bunch of GOP bridges last year that probably could not be repaired in time for a run at the bench.  I also think that his abrasiveness would not serve him well outside the confines of his fan club in SE WI.  The fact that he’s rapidly made the switch to being one of the oft-demonized “trial lawyers” probably won’t hurt him much.

   I think you’re underestimating the downside of a Biskupic candidacy.  Whether or not his actions were improper (I don’t know enough about them to have an opinion) the fact is that he would be forced to deny them every time he appeared at an open forum.  There is no way that any oppo campiagn would let those bygones be bygones.

   I’d put my quarter on a Brennan candidacy.

   Posted by (JavaScript must be enabled to view this email address) on May 09, 2007 at 0527 hrs




3. Bucher is a non-starter.  I like the guy becuase he put forth specific ideas during AG Primary but he is not well liked within the legal community.  Much of the campaigning and fundraising for these races takes place in the board rooms of lawfirms.  If you can’t play to the one crowd that is a given to vote in April - lawyers - you haven’t got a chance. 

   Biskupic is a great guy - but he was never a judge.  I know some people don’t see it as necessary but I do.  How can you judge the rulings and decisions of a judge if you have never been one.  Plus, the TV ads alone would kill him in this point.  But I really do like the guy.  He’s my number two pick.

   Brennan is the guy for the job. He is well liked by lawyers, judges and even talks at the law schools from time to time.  He is seen as fair even by his ideological opponants.  Given that name id is a wash in this race (becuase Butler has none) and becuase Brennan is also from MKE county he starts on equal footing with Butler. 

   I can’t wait for this race only because I want to see Butler answer the add that says:  Butler lost the election for his ceat and only got it as a result of kissing Jim Doyles ass.

   Posted by (JavaScript must be enabled to view this email address) on May 09, 2007 at 0755 hrs




4. Grumps, I’ll take your quarter and double down.

   Brennan’s good—but he’s not running against Loophole.

   Posted by dad29 on May 09, 2007 at 0820 hrs




5. Bring on Biskupic!  Someone who couldn’t beat Peg Lautenschlager for an open AG seat sounds just like the kind of conservative candidate I’d like to see.

   Owen—by the way, no candidate for the court, including incumbents, ever has any name ID.  They get it from TV during the course of the campaign.

   Posted by xoff on May 09, 2007 at 1139 hrs




6. Is that Xoff admitting that Peg should have been beat that go round?  Seems he would have been shilling for her, isn’t that what he does?

   Posted by (JavaScript must be enabled to view this email address) on May 09, 2007 at 1922 hrs