The Myth of Massive Turnout

Yes, it’s a myth.  This election didn’t bring a substantially greater number of people to the polls.

Curtis Gans, one expert on voter turnout, indicates in a new report that based on preliminary, conservative estimates, the turnout among those eligible to vote will be in line with those of 2004 or at most, 1 percentage point higher. Why? This year’s numbers are almost a “mirror” image of the last presidential election; this time fewer Republicans went to the polls and more Democrats turned out.

Looking at it another way, of citizens eligible, those voting Republican were down 1.3 percent from 2004, while those voting Democratic were up about 2.6 percent.

The study projects that a total of 126.million up to 128.5 million, or somewhere in the neighborhood of 60.7 percent to 61.7 percent of those eligible to vote will have cast ballots this year. If that rises to more than 61 percent, the report says, that would be the highest voter turnout rate since 1964.

This election appears to have been the same as 2004 - a turnout election.  The Dems did a better job turning out than the GOP.  Given the dissatisfaction that much of the GOP base felt with their nominee, this was not unexpected. 

It goes back to the old adage that the candidate needs to give people a reason to vote for him or her.

1. Guess it proves that the Obama campaign $800,000 “get-out-the-vote” payment to that ACORN subsidiary was money well spent.

   Posted by (JavaScript must be enabled to view this email address) on November 08, 2008 at 1410 hrs




2. The GOP ran a bad candidate.  I felt it was over when during the first debate the moderator asked McCain who he might appoint as Treasury Secretary and he said “Obama supporter Warren Buffet might be a good pick”

   Then he went on to say that “Meg Whitman, CEO of Ebay, a supporter of mine would also be good.  Many Americans have started their own businesses on E-Bay”

   Of course he didn’t really understand that many Americans really need the money they get from selling their used stuff on E-Bay to pay day to day expenses because we have much fewer high paying manufacturing jobs.

   McCain never really understood anything.  People rip on Palin for her IQ, but I think she actually had more 2008 American common sense than McCain.

   Posted by (JavaScript must be enabled to view this email address) on November 08, 2008 at 1438 hrs




3. Owen- You are misreading the data and coming to the wrong conclusion.  Turnout amongst democrats was way up, but the total turnout number did not rise very much because moderate republicans voted in lower levels.  Plus, if you look at a number of states there were double digit increases in turnout,

   Posted by (JavaScript must be enabled to view this email address) on November 09, 2008 at 1156 hrs




4. There was nothing surprising here. The polling told it back in Feb. The number of people who ID’d as Dems was way up, the number who ID’d as GOP’ers was way down. The GOP name brand is in the tank.

   Posted by (JavaScript must be enabled to view this email address) on November 09, 2008 at 2117 hrs