Predicting Tomorrow’s Vote

Tomorrow the citizens of the West Bend school district will go to the polls to vote on a $119.3 million referendum.  It says:

WEST BEND SCHOOL DISTRICT

Shall the following Initial Resolution be approved?

INITIAL RESOLUTION AUTHORIZING GENERAL OBLIGATION BONDS IN AN AMOUNT NOT TO EXCEED $119,300,000 BE IT RESOLVED by the School Board of the West Bend Joint School District Number 1, that there shall be issued pursuant to Chapter 67 of the Wisconsin Statutes, general obligation bonds in an amount not to exceed $119,300,000 over a four year period for the purpose of paying the cost of a comprehensive facility improvement program which includes constructing a new twin middle school and closing Badger Middle School; converting Silverbrook Middle School into an elementary school and closing Barton Elementary School; constructing a new elementary school to serve the Jackson area and closing Jackson Elementary School; constructing additions and repair and safety improvement projects at Decorah, Fair Park, Green Tree and McLane Elementary Schools and East and West High Schools; and acquiring land, equipment and furnishings all as approved by the District’s Long Range Facilities Plan.

Do you think it will pass?  Note, I didn’t ask if you want it to pass, but if you think it will pass.  Also, what do you think the turnout will be?

Will the West Bend referendum pass or fail?

Total Votes: 191

Pass

 34% (64)

 

Fail

 66% (127)

 

1. I think it will fail.  Too many silent older people without children and rural types who do not want the increased tax burden and see nothing wrong with the communities children going to school in buildings that while old are still a step up over what they attended. 

   The proponents of these referendums are typically very vocal and well organized which over-states their strength.  If this thing gets approved though it will validate a transformation of West Bend’s population which has been taking place the last 10-15 years.

   Posted by (JavaScript must be enabled to view this email address) on November 05, 2007 at 0901 hrs




2. Unfortunately, I beleive it will pass.  With the local media acting as the PR arm for the district on this issue, I certainly believe they have swayed some minds.  Not to mention they have the big 3 when it comes to emotional vs. logical arguments:  “It’s for the children”; “Asbestos” (no matter that this is almost a non-issue); “ADA”. 

   I have done my part, talking to neighbors and trying to generate as many no votes as I can, but I don’t have $28,000 and radio ads.

   Posted by Rich2 on November 05, 2007 at 1022 hrs




3. I thought it was going to pass, but with the increased attention on taxes due to the MPS fiasco, the tide might be turning.

   People thought Elmbrook was going to pass, and it was soundly thumped.  Let’s hope West Bend is just as smart.

   Posted by (JavaScript must be enabled to view this email address) on November 05, 2007 at 1048 hrs




4. Interresting note by Rich. When you talk about friendly local media, I hope you aren’t including the local radio station that has been hammering us for weeks. Or, all the Milwaukee radio guys who have been doing the same. The local newspaper has treated us better, but they also have given very prominent space to both Rich and Owen. And, of course, we now have out-of-towners educating us to vote no. Given all of that, I think it is a long shot to pass. The right thing is often not the popular thing.

   Posted by Charlie Hillman on November 05, 2007 at 1117 hrs




5. The attention that the state budget process received - plus the fact that every branch of government (including our own West Bend School Board) has been busy jacking up taxes - may finally have caught the attention of the electorate. I think enough will turn out to vote down the teachers and activist moms.

   Hopefully the snow showers don’t keep people away from the polls - I am thinking turnout will be between 25 and 30 percent.

   Posted by (JavaScript must be enabled to view this email address) on November 05, 2007 at 1127 hrs




6. Actually Charlie I am talking about the local radio and newspaper.  For the newspaper, the Daily News has given the referendum and specifically Dr. Herdrich pages and pages of softball and uncontested questions.  Basically, they are printing a Q&A;version of the informational meetings without challenging the responses.  The same can be said of the newscasts on WBKV.  I don’t consider the Milwaukee guys as local nor do I really see them as influential.  Mybe I am just being stupid, but you and I know their rendition of the facts is not always correct and I believe many people can see through the exaggerations.

   Posted by Rich2 on November 05, 2007 at 1134 hrs




7. I do agree that the Q&A;series was indeed softball. I’m not sure it was very convincing. Don’t get me started on the Milwaukee guys. I think they have been largely responsible for handing the State over to the Democrats. Little tent folks. Rich, your arguments are well reasoned. If the referendum goes down, I hope you will become involved as we really need to address the facility issues. My biggest fear is that we will be forced to throw good money after bad.

   Posted by Charlie Hillman on November 05, 2007 at 1146 hrs




8. Rich2 - you don’t know me from Adam & we are not on the same page, but I do respect your style & hope that someday you do find it in your heart to serve in some public capacity.  It seems like you do back up your provocative opinions with facts, and take the time to do the research, and take care not to make a fool of yourself.  It also seems like you don’t play any mind or word games.

   Personally, I think nothing is to be gained by waiting to do what is inevitable - interest rates are good, construction costs are going to rise, yada yada, etc.. etc.  I recall some recent comments on the “operations” side that you raised, and I agree with you on that, but I can’t hold the facilities issue hostage on those issues.

   Posted by (JavaScript must be enabled to view this email address) on November 05, 2007 at 1228 hrs




9. Raising taxes in a tax hell is never the right thing to do. Resisting the pressure from the various interest groups that want to stuff taxpayer dollars into their pockets is both right and popular.

   Posted by Peter on November 05, 2007 at 1304 hrs




10. I know that I am not well educated on this aspect of government to business so this is surely a naive question.
    Why 215 million(ish) after interest?  Why wouldn’t construction start after money has come in?  Do one building at a time, etc.  Sure there could be snags but 5-10 million in interest is a lot better than 100 million.  I was more or less pro-referendum if some responsible trimming could have been done, but if the cost is well over 200 million after interest, shouldn’t that be reported and considered in the referendum?  What is/was the plan to pay off that interest?  Is it in the fine print?  Was it just going to be a permanent addition to the tax levy where when questioned on why the additional taxes for this referendum were not going away, nameless government officials could say they were still paying interest and then it would never be questioned again? 

    I don’t get it.  If a referndum is a temporary tax addition and it is for 119 million, where does the paying of that interest come from?  Charlie, someone, help me out on this.

    Posted by (JavaScript must be enabled to view this email address) on November 05, 2007 at 1313 hrs




11. I am on the line about if it will pass or not.  I voted fail, and I also hope fail.  I think voter turnout will be only about 25%, which is so very sad in a community like West Bend.

    Posted by (JavaScript must be enabled to view this email address) on November 05, 2007 at 1320 hrs




12. Owen,

    I have talked to many of my neighbors this weekend and NONE of them knew about the 6.5% tax levy increase passed on Thursday by our arrogant school board.  They are all educated people, most of them with children in the district, or will be going to in the next 2-3 years.  Why do not more people know about this?  I only heard about it on Friday on AM local radio and was mad as heck.

    I am a public school teacher in a different district, but live in West Bend.  I know how important safety and education are.  I work in a school district that is one of the highest paying in WI for teachers.  The residents have lower taxes and we are turning out excellent students and have a middle school that is nationally recognized as a National School of Excellence.  We also have managed to cut unneccesary positions and we have kept music, art, tech. ed, etc.  I guess after working in a district that provides quality education without wishing tax death on their residents, I cannot agree with the West Bend school district that so much money is needed by them.  There are issues in West Bend schools that need to be fixed, yes, but one, our now 6.5% increase can deal with that, two, West Bend should have dealt with this earlier instead of waiting 10 years, and three, West Bend schools, nor any other school, do not need a “beautiful” school to learn in, the students need a safe school and good teachers and good parents.  Walls and buildings do not educate our children, people do.

    I could go on and on about why I so much disagree with this referendum at such a high amount, but I won’t.  I just want to know why more people are not aware of this and how can we get them to be? 

    Have a good day!

    Posted by (JavaScript must be enabled to view this email address) on November 05, 2007 at 1333 hrs




13. Tuerqas - Note the referendum is to authorize issuance of bonds. This is equivalent to taking out a mortgage. The tax rate then goes up to pay them off over the next 20-years. It is not like the county sales tax, which was supposed to sunset, but hasn’t and probably never will.

    Posted by (JavaScript must be enabled to view this email address) on November 05, 2007 at 1359 hrs




14. Jodi - be interesting to hear some specifics like what school district, what mil rate, and what cost per student.  My brother lives in Greendale - many times that school district has been mentioned as the highest paying.  Their cost per student in 2005-2006 was $11479; state average was $10,989, West Bend was $9126.

    Elmbrook was cited above, their cost per student was $11209.

    We have numerous situations where different school districts serve parts of the same city/village/township.  Someone with a Village of Jackson $190,000 home in the West Bend district for 2006 paid $2966 per year (all taxes)/someone in the Slinger side paid $3295 (a difference of $329 per year).  Someone in the Town of Jackson paid $2174 if West Bend School District; $2740 if Germantown (+566); and $2713 if Slinger (+539).  Sounds like West Bend has a long ways to go before they catch up.  I think Slinger has relatively new schools, and Germantown is discussing one new school.

    Again, let’s hear what your district mil rate or cost per student is, for those of us who like to make informed decisions.

    Posted by (JavaScript must be enabled to view this email address) on November 05, 2007 at 1403 hrs




15. I believe it will fail as well.  I think the WB News was derelict in their duties reporting the 6.25% increase (page 3 I think).  In talking with friends and neighbors over the weekend about this, none of them were aware of the increase that had been put through, and were quite surprised when I informed them.  Oh well, whats another $400 or so dollars tacked onto our insanely high tax bill- right?  It’s about time we pay more in taxes.

    Posted by (JavaScript must be enabled to view this email address) on November 05, 2007 at 1455 hrs




16. Thanks wiaggie, I knew I was spacing something.

    Posted by (JavaScript must be enabled to view this email address) on November 05, 2007 at 1458 hrs




17. mht-
    just some info. I found about my district, good and bad
    I still know we spend less and get more results than West Bend
    http://www.ozaukeepress.com/story1.html

    http://www.milwaukeemagazine.com/Additional_Stories/ default.asp?NewMessageID=13643
    way at the bottom—yes we pay a bit more it says, but performance is above average

    2005-06 school year PWSSD spent $9,725 per student
    prperty tax revenue $3,491 per pupil
    toatl enrollment 2,622
    from public policy forum

    all above just some info.

    also, I did say I was in ONE of the highest paying districts, not THE highest.

    Posted by (JavaScript must be enabled to view this email address) on November 05, 2007 at 1603 hrs




18. I think it will fail.  I also think Brett Favray sucks.

    Posted by Brett Favray Sucks on November 05, 2007 at 1635 hrs




19. Fails 62% to 38%. Silence is not consensus when it can be measured at a voting booth.

    Turnout could be lower than expected if the weather gets nasty. I heard maybe 30% but am thinking more like 23% to 25%.

    Posted by Cindy on November 05, 2007 at 1751 hrs




20. the board tried an old-fashioned “get-out-the-vote” strategy.

    this always got high turnouts in the U.S.

    the opposition resorted to the technique which revered those long-standing high-turnouts:

    Negative. negative. negative.  I’m appalled but not amazed at how negative and bitter the opposition has been. 

    What I am BOTH appalled and amazed at is how quickly they organized.

    Posted by (JavaScript must be enabled to view this email address) on November 05, 2007 at 2151 hrs




21. I am on the line about if it will pass or not.  I voted fail, and I also hope fail.  I think voter turnout will be only about 25%, which is so very sad in a community like West Bend. But that’s only my opinion.

    Posted by Arizona Web Design on May 14, 2008 at 0841 hrs