Saturday, January 16, 2010

Obama to Massachusetts

Not that I mind Obama committing political blunders, but this seems like a really bad idea.

BOSTON (AP) - His health care bill at stake, President Barack Obama plans a trip to Massachusetts to campaign for endangered Senate Democratic candidate Martha Coakley amid release of a poll showing an edge for the Republican Party in the race to fill a Senate seat Democrats have held for over a half-century.

It’s a no win for Obama.  If Brown loses, but is within striking distance in Massachusetts, what happens?  People see that the Democrats had to call in POTUS to campaign for what should be the most secure seat in the nation for the Democrats.  Democrats in the House who are in close races already know that Obama can’t go out to 40 or 50 House districts this year to campaign for them and that even if he could, it’s not going to help much.  If Brown gets within 10 points of winning in one of the most Democratic states in the country, Obama’s political capital will drain even further. 

Worst case for Obama… Brown wins.  After Obama’s efforts in New Jersey and Virginia failed to produce results, he is seen as the kiss of death for any campaign.  It would be like the last couple years of George W. Bush’s tenure when Republicans wanted him to raise money for them, but stay away from the campaigns. 

The best case scenario if is Coakley roars back and wins by the 20 to 25 points that she should given the makeup of the electorate.  But that’s such a long shot at this point with such a political downside if it doesn’t happen that Obama seems a bit rash in taking the risk.

(9) Comments
Posted by Owen at 1243 hrs
Politics + Politics - General

  1. Hopefully he will be just as successful in Massachusetts as he was with the IOC vampire

    Posted by .(JavaScript must be enabled to view this email address) on January 16, 2010 at 1315 hrs


  2. Sayeth Nate Silver, who actually contemplates data before making assertions:

    “Obviously Massachusetts is a very blue state, but the notion that the Democrat always wins by a 20- or 30- point blowout is just not true. The Democrat received more than 60 percent of the vote (in open-seat elections since 1980) on only 4 of 19 occasions and averaged 56.2 points to the Republican’s 39.9.”

    Also worth noting is that in the nine open-seat elections that were statewide races, the GOP won three of them (gubernatorial races in 1990, 1998, and 2002).

    Furthermore, it’s interesting that so many conservatives have tried to claim Brown as a measuring stick for their own crusade even though Brown is far, far closer to the much-maligned Dede Scozzafava ideologically.  Brown supported Massachusetts’ 2006 health care reform plan, he’s pro-choice, he’s a 10th amendment guy on gay marriage - heck,  some number crunching by Andrew Gelman concluded that Brown was more liberal than two-thirds of his Republican colleagues in the state legislature.

    I’m certainly pleased to see this stunning outbreak of common sense among conservatives.  Is it possible that some of the wingnuts on the national blogs are actually beginning to understand the value of political power and not just backing the hopeless candidacies of fellow nutjobs because it feels good?  Maybe there’s hope for the GOP after all.

    Posted by Recess Supervisor on January 16, 2010 at 1345 hrs


  3. If Brown’s conservative credentials are so soft, why hasn’t Sarah Palin rushed in with an alternative? The guy’s pro-choice and supports gay marriage? Where’s the tea partiers when you need them?

    Posted by .(JavaScript must be enabled to view this email address) on January 16, 2010 at 1424 hrs


  4. Oh, yeah, you got us there, RS.  Instead of Dems winning by 20 points in Mass, their average margin of victory is a little over 16% - understanding that many elections were won by well over 16%.  Yeah, that doesn’t indicate that Mass is a very blue state or anything.  Glad we cleared that up. 

    And in this case, when the Kennedy family, former President Clinton, President Obama, and the entire Democratic establishment is campaigning heavily for Coakley, I’ll stand by my opinion that if Brown gets within 10 points, every House Democrat in a swing district should be very very worried.

    Posted by Owen on January 16, 2010 at 1441 hrs


  5. I could care less for whether the guy is a RINO or a big-time conservative.  And I hope the independents and moderates in Mass don’t care either. 

    This vote doesn’t remove 59 Dem Senators from power, or all their House members or Obama.  Dems will still run everything.  It simply stops this garbage that Pelosi and Obama want to ram through that probably 60-70% of the country are highly opposed to. 

    And hopefully the voters there think it is a good idea to add a check and balance.

    Posted by .(JavaScript must be enabled to view this email address) on January 16, 2010 at 1600 hrs


  6. My only point was that your statement about how she should win by 20-25 points is based on nothing remotely factual - just more empty assertions.  And your opinions regarding election results are, with all due respect, entirely blinded by your own beliefs.  Do I really need to pull up one cycle after another of errant predictions we’ve seen from you?  Somehow, the Republicans always seem to do worse and the Democrats always seem to do better than you think.

    For the record, I’ve already sent my money to Brown.  Are you going to put your money where your mouth is or are you just gonna yammer about what you want to see happen?

    Posted by Recess Supervisor on January 16, 2010 at 1650 hrs


  7. So… it’s unreasonable to think that a Democrat running in Massachusetts who has the Kennedy family, Clinton, Obama, and everyone else in the Democratic establishment campaigning for her should win by 20 points in a normal year?  Huh.  OK, fine.  She should win by 16 points.  Happy? 

    And yes, RS, we all know that you are a paragon of objectivity whose opinions are never colored by your worldview   LOL

    I don’t recall making a prediction on the race.  You’ll have to enlighten me.  And I stopped giving any money to politicians years ago for a variety of reasons.  I’m sure Brown is thankful for your donation.  As far as yammering… yes.  I’m a blogger.  It’s what I do.  Guess what?  So do you.

    Posted by Owen on January 16, 2010 at 1658 hrs


  8. My only point was that your statement about how she should win by 20-25 points is based on nothing remotely factual - just more empty assertions.

    RS, dont forget that in November, Coakley was beating Brown by 31%. Now, Brown is up by 4%—a change of 35% in two months.

    Posted by .(JavaScript must be enabled to view this email address) on January 16, 2010 at 2026 hrs


  9. I must also correct RS on his continued obsession with the NY-23 race.  First of all, Scozzofava was for the healthcare bill, for cap and trade, for card check - regardless of her stance on her social issues.  NY-23 is a more conservative district and could handle a true conservative candidate.  Hell - Scozzafava was to the left of the Democrat and him winning certainly didn’t change the outcome of… anything.

    MA is an entirely different situation…  It’s still MA - and very blue.  Scott Brown is against the healthcare bill and against cap and trade.  For the fiscal conservatives/Tea Party folks - that makes him look like a freaking hero regardless of his stance on social issues.  And him winning could change the outcome on…  a lot.

    To quote a famous Democrat…  It’s the economy stupid.

    Hope that clears it up for you.

    But thanks for continuing to pretend you care about conservatives.  You would be known as a “concern troll”.

    Posted by .(JavaScript must be enabled to view this email address) on January 16, 2010 at 2240 hrs


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