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Media: “I don’t understand why Obama isn’t sailing to victory.”

You have to love this lead in.

You can’t keep a good man down.

That might be the simplest way to sum up John McCain’s campaign for the US presidency right now. He’s not winning, but he’s running stronger than anyone knows how to explain.

Umm.. it’s pretty easy to explain.  Unlike those in the media, a good chunk of the American population doesn’t like Obama and his policies. 

Posted by Owen at 1439 hrs
Politics + Politics - General

1. Nahhh.  From what I hear, that “good chunk” is just a bunch of racists.

   Posted by (JavaScript must be enabled to view this email address) on August 03, 2008 at 1702 hrs




2. Last week Senator Obama was too popular to be President.  Have we changed to a new talking point for the new week?

   Posted by (JavaScript must be enabled to view this email address) on August 04, 2008 at 0557 hrs




3. Media: “I don’t understand why Obama isn’t sailing to victory.”

   Where is that quote from?

   Posted by (JavaScript must be enabled to view this email address) on August 04, 2008 at 0731 hrs




4. I don’t know.  What I’ve been wondering is how long McCain can defy gravity.  He’s like the coyote in the old Road Runner cartoons who runs out over a cliff edge and keeps running midair for a short time before plummeting to the canyon below.  (And possibly having an anvil come down on his head after.)

   So many things are against McCain. He represents the party of the current occupant, who is extremely unpopular.  And, because he and Bush are of the same party, McCain stands to take a lot of heat for the way things are right now, including the economy and the war.  Plus, if elected McCain would be the oldest guy ever to be president.  That’s not “agism,” that’s pragmatism—who wants to elect someone whose health might fail during his tenure?

   Meanwhile, people want change, Obama is consistently running on it.  People are favoring Democrats and Democratic initiatives.  (War, environment, etc.)

   All this and McCain is still within single digits of Obama.  But I expect that this will come to an end.  Eventually gravity catches up with coyote and he falls.  Eventually voters distaste for Republicans, their desire for change, and their concerns about his age will lead to his poll numbers falling precipitously.

   Of course everything I just wrote is probably wrong, such is my ability to predict a damned thing concerning American politics.

   Posted by scott on August 04, 2008 at 0919 hrs




5. While I disagree with you on who’s running on change, I really think you need to check this list…

   War, environment, etc.

   Last time I checked, people were tired of the Dem’s environment policy, and Pelosi had to pull the old “turn off the lights” and take a 5 week vacation to stop any vote on offshore / ANWR drilling. 

   And this…

   Eventually voters distaste for Republicans, their desire for change, and their concerns about his age will lead to his poll numbers falling precipitously.

   Is nothing more than partisan bullshit.  What happened to the scott who was demanding that this blog discuss the issues, and not Obama’s pastor, wife’s thesis, or German fliers?  Why the sudden change in tactics?  You’re ticking off liberal talking points, and not discussing McCain’s policies or politics.

   Personally, I think McCain will go up as he becomes more active in the campaign, to me it seemed he was content (as was I) to sit back and watch the Democratic Nomination turn into Chernobyl with Barak and Hillary.  I’m looking forward to the debates, and really wish Obama would agree to more than the three.

   Posted by (JavaScript must be enabled to view this email address) on August 04, 2008 at 1040 hrs




6. Sorry, did I mention McCain’s first wife?  Or the Keating Five?  Or what he calls his current wife?  Or his flip-flops on the religious right?

   No.  I’m talking about my understanding of public opinion on issues and the two party’s respective platforms—and how those opinions don’t seem to be entirely reflected in the poll numbers of the candidates for president.  You may think my understanding of public opinion is wrong and that’s fine.  But I’m seeing a disconnect—a gravity defying aspect—between public opinion on several key issues and the poll numbers of the candidates.

   Get it?

   Example: People want out of Iraq, and McCain’s all about staying in Iraq—but his poll numbers are still pretty good.  Why?  Because he’s defying gravity and that will soon change.

   Posted by scott on August 04, 2008 at 1059 hrs




7. Right now people are dealing with the same scenario that has happened before in elections.

   They are tired of the current regime, or in this case sick and tired of the old regime. Let’s face, it. The right has had things their way for the past 25 years and it hasn’t worked out for this country.

   Now there is this new guys. And like with Kennedy and Reagan, they know the Titanic is going down. So do they want to stay on board and hope help shows up or the boat suddenly becomes buoyant, or do they want to chance the icy waters of change, get on and sail away before being sucked down by the undertow of a sinking ship.

   Posted by (JavaScript must be enabled to view this email address) on August 04, 2008 at 1127 hrs




8. That’s ok, I understand. 

   Example: People want out of Iraq, and McCain’s all about staying in Iraq—but his poll numbers are still pretty good.

   Personally, I don’t think the bottom will drop out, because what I read from that is, “Yeah a majority would like to be out of Iraq”, and either they realize it’s wishful thinking, or they realize that “his other policies and views are more important to us right now and so we’ll give him a pass on the Iraq war.”

   Just my opinion.

   Posted by (JavaScript must be enabled to view this email address) on August 04, 2008 at 1127 hrs




9. I think that’s a pretty gross misreading of public opinion about Iraq.  What you’re saying is that, sure, polls indicate that people want out but they don’t really want out.  I maintain that they do indeed want what they say they want.

   Posted by scott on August 04, 2008 at 1136 hrs




10. No, I do think that polls indicate that people want out of Iraq, but it’s not the top #1 priority of a presidential candidate that has that exact same viewpoint.  I think I have more poll data to back me up than you do

    I do think they want what they say, but if they had to choose between a candidate who wants out of Iraq and wants $7 a gallon gas, and a candidate who will stay in Iraq only until the country is stable and wants $2 a gallon gas… most people would vote for the latter.  Iraq is lower priority of an issue than the economy and other domestic issues.

    Posted by (JavaScript must be enabled to view this email address) on August 04, 2008 at 1159 hrs




11. Just don’t feel America can trust BHO.

    Posted by (JavaScript must be enabled to view this email address) on August 04, 2008 at 1257 hrs




12. if they had to choose between a candidate who wants out of Iraq and wants $7 a gallon gas, and a candidate who will stay in Iraq only until the country is stable and wants $2 a gallon gas… most people would vote for the latter.

    Well there’s a level-headed analysis. 

    
    Mom, perhaps we should just start calling him “H,” as we did with “W.”

    Posted by scott on August 04, 2008 at 1322 hrs




13. Mom, you instead of B HUSSEIN O a candidate who has done so many flip flops he could be a third Hamm brother?

    Posted by (JavaScript must be enabled to view this email address) on August 04, 2008 at 1327 hrs




14. A president wanting gas to be whatever $ a gallon won’t make it so.

    Unless of course you can make the case that GWB wants gas to be $4 a gallon?

    Posted by (JavaScript must be enabled to view this email address) on August 04, 2008 at 1327 hrs




15. Keith, if you seriously believe that Obama has more and more egregious issue flip-flops than other politicians—McCain comes to mind—then I think you’ve got to stop drinking your own kool-aid.  That kind of thing is great for a Republican talking point on television, but you don’t represent the McCain campaign, and we’re trying (I think) to have a more spin-free and genuine discussion than this kind of comment will bring.

    My original point again (and correct me if I’m wrong): Public opinion favors Obama’s position on Iraq. Public opinion favors Obama’s position on the economy.  Public opinion favors Obama on energy policy, too.  These are, I think, the largest issues of the day. So why is McCain hanging in there? 

    It’s the gravity defying thing I’m talking about.  Perhaps it’s just that people don’t think of McCain as a Republican (a party which people have largely lost confidence in), or that the “likely voters” being polled aren’t paying enough attention to the race yet to know the candidate’s actual positions are.  I really don’t know.  But it’s hard for me to see where McCain keeps his relatively healthy (albeit second place) numbers over then next couple of months.

    Posted by scott on August 04, 2008 at 1339 hrs




16. Public opinion favors Obama’s position on Iraq.

    I agree

    Public opinion favors Obama’s position on the economy. 

    I disagree.

    Public opinion favors Obama on energy policy, too.

    I disagree.  Certainly the worm has turned on the Democrats on their failed energy policies, as recent events in The House have shown.

    That’s why I think McCain is hanging right in there, the people have their priorities, and the War is sliding back into lower significance to most Average Joes.

    Posted by (JavaScript must be enabled to view this email address) on August 04, 2008 at 1344 hrs




17. Sorry if you miss-read me Scott. I do believe you would know which side I am on , but my apologies for who I meant.

    John McCain, as you note, is very agile when it comes to the flips and the flogs. He is his own Cirque Solei.

    Once we clear Labor Day the voters will be on to him, and we should win unless the GOP again steals the election.

    Posted by (JavaScript must be enabled to view this email address) on August 04, 2008 at 1430 hrs




18. we should win unless the GOP again steals the election.

    That made me laugh out loud.  Thanks, Keith.

    Posted by (JavaScript must be enabled to view this email address) on August 04, 2008 at 1548 hrs




19. Thought this was an interesting update for this post - from today’s MJS Newsonline:

    Presidential race may be tightening here

    With the presidential race tightening a bit nationally, there are signs the same thing may be happening in Wisconsin.

    A survey taken Tuesday by Rasmussen Reports puts Democrat Barack Obama ahead of McCain 47% to 43%. That four-point gap is down from an 11-point Obama lead measured by the same pollster a month earlier.

    Posted by (JavaScript must be enabled to view this email address) on August 08, 2008 at 0945 hrs

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