McCain Takes the Lead Over Obama

I thought that Obama’s presidency was inevitable?

In a sharp turnaround, Republican John McCain has opened a 5-point lead on Democrat Barack Obama in the U.S. presidential race and is seen as a stronger manager of the economy, according to a Reuters/Zogby poll released on Wednesday.

McCain leads Obama among likely U.S. voters by 46 percent to 41 percent, wiping out Obama’s solid 7-point advantage in July and taking his first lead in the monthly Reuters/Zogby poll.

[...]

The dip in support for Obama, who would be the first black U.S. president, cut across demographic and ideological lines. He slipped among Catholics, born-again Christians, women, independents and younger voters. He retained the support of more than 90 percent of black voters.

“There were no wild swings, there isn’t one group that is radically different than last month or even two months ago. It was just a steady decline for Obama across the board,” Zogby said.

1. I’m still willing to make a bet that Obama wins.  Takers?

   Posted by scott on August 20, 2008 at 0954 hrs




2. Betting over a message board.  Thats fresh.  How old are we?

   Posted by (JavaScript must be enabled to view this email address) on August 20, 2008 at 1009 hrs




3. Sorry to offend your delicate sensibilities.  I guess that means you’re not interested?

   Posted by scott on August 20, 2008 at 1012 hrs




4. Not offended Scott.  Just laughing at you.

   Posted by (JavaScript must be enabled to view this email address) on August 20, 2008 at 1023 hrs




5. “There were no wild swings, there isn’t one group that is radically different than last month or even two months ago. It was just a steady decline for Obama across the board,” Zogby said.

   Smarts doesn’t it Scott

   Posted by (JavaScript must be enabled to view this email address) on August 20, 2008 at 1029 hrs




6. *imitating whiny liberal* well, what do you expect when McCain can listen in on Obama’s questions and answers in advance?  They’re never fair to poor Barack!

   Posted by Calvin Freiburger on August 20, 2008 at 1039 hrs




7. This should continue the decline:

   http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/uselectio n2008/barackobama/2590614/Barack-Obamas-lost-brother-found-i n-Kenya.html

   He can’t even help his half brother.

   And my personal spin on that article:
   http://www.new.facebook.com/photo.php?pid=30238949& l;=8bd31&id;=125600174

   Posted by (JavaScript must be enabled to view this email address) on August 20, 2008 at 1046 hrs




8. Not sure what to make of this Zogby poll, I haven’t seen much disecting of it.  As of now it is just one poll.

   That being said, the slim lead Obama has held to this point isn’t enough to pull it off in my opinion.  If he’s showing only a 4 or 5 point lead come late October, I would consider that a losing margin.

   Not to get anyone’s panties in a bunch, or open myself up to accussations of playing the race card, but I’m sure that’s unavoidable by posting this.  But facts are you can’t poll for prejudice or latent racism, it just isn’t possible.  You can ask about character, positions, party ID, etc, but very few people think they are prejudice, and even fewer think they would act on those prejudices.  Yet there is a definite pattern of candidates of color underperforming poll results, especially in rural areas.

   Just a thought to keep in mind as election day approaches.

   I’m not predicting a winner, but I think Obama will underperform his national polling by a 2 to 3 percent swing.  Meaning a 4 point lead is either dead even or Obama down one, or Obama down 2 is really down 4 or 5.

   Hopefully I’m underestimating the American people, and will be happy to admit it if the results prove me wrong.

   Posted by (JavaScript must be enabled to view this email address) on August 20, 2008 at 1057 hrs




9. When exactly did it become inevitable that Obama was going to win?  Did I miss that?  (first I miss the traffic jams of trucks at night on I94 - older post).  Wasn’t it just a few short months back we were talking about how Hillary had an easy road to the nomination and Obama kinda came out of nowhere.  nice spin “inevitable”

   Posted by (JavaScript must be enabled to view this email address) on August 20, 2008 at 1101 hrs




10. Lefty you may have a good point there, but here’s another one: Polls of “likely voters” are underestimating Obama’s actual support.  I think it’s likely that a lot of people—African Americans mainly—will be voting for the first time in order to cast their ballot for him.  They aren’t likely voters—but enough of them will show up to counterbalance the nebulous group who say they’ll vote for a black man but who in reality won’t.

    Posted by scott on August 20, 2008 at 1105 hrs




11. In addition to KoKo’s link, two more stories should help the decline: the recent revelations about his support of infanticide, and this one:

    http://sweetness-light.com/archive/obama-taxpayer-to -african-relatives-school

    Posted by Calvin Freiburger on August 20, 2008 at 1107 hrs




12. Koko, I really don’t know what you’re trying to get at with that link.  You believe the story about Obama’s half brother will hurt his campaign?  How?  Calvin, how is a completely slanted entry on a partisan blog going to hurt Obama’s chances?

    You guys think this kind of stuff is going to sink his campaign?  Please get real.

    Posted by scott on August 20, 2008 at 1114 hrs




13. Its obviously not gonna sink the campaign. However, you would think the hope and change candidate would help his half-brother out of absolute poverty.

    Posted by (JavaScript must be enabled to view this email address) on August 20, 2008 at 1126 hrs




14. Not to get anyone’s panties in a bunch, or open myself up to accussations of playing the race card, but I’m sure that’s unavoidable by posting this.  But facts are you can’t poll for prejudice or latent racism, it just isn’t possible.  You can ask about character, positions, party ID, etc, but very few people think they are prejudice, and even fewer think they would act on those prejudices.  Yet there is a definite pattern of candidates of color underperforming poll results, especially in rural areas.

    I agree that there is a pattern of DEMOCRATS underperforming poll results.  I don’t think that is rooted in racism however.

    Obama is definitely the “trendy” of the candidates.  He’s the media darling.  This is obvious.

    I think with the way media paints democrats as the saviors of the people and republicans as the evil arm of big oil, big pharma, big corn, big whatever that influences people to say they are for the democrat when they aren’t actually going to vote that way.

    Kind of like going out and asking people if they recycle.  Being “green” is the trendy thing to do.  Everyone wants to say they are (well not everyone) but when it comes right down to action, they aren’t.

    As for “latent racism” what is this?  A concept that people are recist and they don’t even know it?  How convenient. 

    but very few people think they are prejudice, and even fewer think they would act on those prejudices.

    So if people don’t think they are racist, and they don’t think they would act on those prejudices, but yet you think there is latent racism, how do you come to that conclusion?

    Because they don’t vote for the black candidate?

    How convenient of an excuse that is.  If the black candidate loses, it must be racism???

    I’ll be honest. I think people who blame racism for ‘candidate of color’ losing elections are in denial.  I think they don’t want to face the real reasons their candidates lose and so they blame racism.

    I think when it comes down to it, much of american (and especially in rural areas) they don’t buy into the culture of victimization and culture of dependence on government that exists in the ‘black community’.  And that has nothing to do with the color of their skin but rather their beliefs and policy.

    I wasn’t horrified to see a couple thousand black people beating down the door for their ‘free flood relief food vouchers’ in June because they were black.  I was horrified at the culture of entitlement and wanting something for nothing that exists in those areas that are predominantly black.  And when there is a candidate who’s biggest base of support by a shattering majority is ‘the black vote’ I’ll be honest, I’m REAL worried about the kind of policies that candidate would put in place.  Has nothing to do with their color of skin.

    Posted by (JavaScript must be enabled to view this email address) on August 20, 2008 at 1127 hrs




15. Scott:

    No comment regarding the infanticide?
    Is it defendable?

    Posted by (JavaScript must be enabled to view this email address) on August 20, 2008 at 1215 hrs




16. Well, I gotta say I expected more hate and vitriol than that xxpilot, so I’m somewhat relieved.

    Couple of points xx.  I’m not talking about winning or losing, I’m talking about election day performance compared to polling data, up or down.  I’ve seen first hand descrepancies between good internal polling numbers and election day results.  To me they suggest a pattern to be concerned about if you are an Obama supporter.  That has played a strong part in forming my opinion.  Take it for what its worth.

    I use terms like latent racism and prejudice to describe feelings held by people that don’t hold racist beliefs based on hate, but more on familiarity, culture and social interaction.  Maybe latent racism isn’t the best term, but I’m trying to find a way to convey feelings or actions by people who aren’t some caricature wearing a white hood and robe.  Prejudice is probably the safest word, and I will stick to that if the convesation continues.

    I know many who post here think liberals make too much of race in this country, and think we’ve moved beyond those issues.  In some cases I would agree with the race as a crutch argument.  But I also know from first hand accounts that have been relayed to me that race is playing a role in slowing down some of Obama’s support from traditional Dem bases.  How far that goes into independents, or moderate Repubs, I don’t know.

    To some extent those accounts are anecdotal, and difficult to measure, and I understand that.  But to me anyone reading this blog has an interest outside of whether they agree or disagree with Owen’s comments.  We’re all interested in the opinions of the people of our state and nation of the as a whole, and what drives those opinions.  This is an important factor, a factor that is almost impossible to measure.  But we may have one indicator this November, and I think people should look at where Obama is polling in the last two weeks leading up to the eleciton, and where he ends up on election day.  It could prove me 100% wrong, and I hope it does, but I’m going to be interested in how it turns out.

    Posted by (JavaScript must be enabled to view this email address) on August 20, 2008 at 1217 hrs




17. I didn’t believe Reuters/Zogby during the last presidential campaign and I don’t now, either. There’s no buzz about the Republican party. The haven’t been any devastatingly bad stories (relatively speaking) about Obama. If the Republicans win, it will be miraculous. My guess is that Obama will lead in the next poll and the Media will come out with stories of how Obama is gaining strength… yada, yada, yada. In the end, I’m still guessing that Obama will win this battle.

    Posted by Fuzz on August 20, 2008 at 1241 hrs




18. I use terms like latent racism and prejudice to describe feelings held by people that don’t hold racist beliefs based on hate, but more on familiarity, culture and social interaction.

    Prejudice is probably the safest word, and I will stick to that if the convesation continues.

    Fair enough. “racism” has such a pejorative connotation to it (to me it seems) as in literally, the color of a persons skin makes a difference to me.  (it doesn’t)

    Prejudice not so much.  I’m certain that I have many many many prejudices and some of them are probably based on the things you listed, but my prejudices have been gathered from my experiences and observations and does that lead to some presumptions…  It must…  I think its human nature to have expectations based upon past observations.

    Anyway…  Like I said, I do agree with you on the polling data.  It just seems that the last several elections polls have been way off.  Pre-election polling, exit polling… 

    But I also know from first hand accounts that have been relayed to me that race is playing a role in slowing down some of Obama’s support from traditional Dem bases.

    Really?  Race as in ‘just’ the color of his skin, or a larger cultural issues that become aggregated with race?

    Posted by (JavaScript must be enabled to view this email address) on August 20, 2008 at 1244 hrs




19. I think it is this kind of stuff that will impact his “inevitibility:

    “

    Well, uh, you know, I think that whether you’re looking at it from a theological perspective or, uh, a scientific perspective, uh, answering that question with specificity, uh, you know, is, is, uh, above my pay grade.” - Sen. Barack Obama, on “When does a baby get human rights?”

    In 1948, they had Harry Truman and “The buck stops here!”

    In 2008, they’ve got Barack Obama and it’s “above my pay grade.”

    This is definitely not your grandfather’s Democratic Party.

    http://www.bostonherald.com/news/opinion/op_ed/view. bg?&articleid;=1113869&format;=&page;=1&listingType;=opi#art icleFull

    Posted by (JavaScript must be enabled to view this email address) on August 20, 2008 at 1253 hrs




20. Scott,
    Well, if the Evening Standard story picked up by said partisan blog gains traction, I kinda doubt it will improve people’s perceptions of Obama…

    And I also noticed the crickets chirping about your candidate’s support for infanticide.

    Posted by Calvin Freiburger on August 20, 2008 at 1259 hrs




21. What’s at stake with a wager, might I ask?

    Posted by jimi on August 20, 2008 at 1432 hrs




22. I thought when they poll “likely voters” they were filtering out respondents who indicate they don’t vote or aren’t planning to vote?

    It’s a long time until November. 

    And I’m already tired of being called a racist because I won’t vote for the guy who promises to cripple the economy and surrender to all enemies foreign and domestic.

    Posted by HeatherRadish on August 20, 2008 at 1653 hrs




23. Heather -

    A point of clarification…  Obama will at least invade our allies like Pakistan (who have nuclear weapons).

    How weird is that, huh?

    http://www.reuters.com/article/domesticNews/idUSN013 2206420070801

    Posted by (JavaScript must be enabled to view this email address) on August 21, 2008 at 1055 hrs




24. Yeah and if bin Laden thumbs his nose at us from across the Pakinstan border, and the Pakistanis are unable to take him, Mr. tough talk McCain will just shrug and say “oh well, nothing we can do.”

    Posted by scott on August 21, 2008 at 1057 hrs