Sunday, August 03, 2008

McCain and Obama Tied

I think it’s kind of funny that Obama gained his greatest popularity by leaving the country.

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The short-lived bounce of Barack Obama’s European tour is gone, and the presidential contest between Obama and John McCain has settled back down to a dead-heat, in the measure of the daily tracking surveys of the Gallup Poll.

The three-day average of surveys run Wednesday through Friday found 44 percent of those surveyed supporting Obama, the Democratic junior senator from Illinois, and 44 percent supporting McCain, the Republican senior senator from Arizona.

(9) Comments
Posted by Owen at 0929 hrs
Politics + Politics - General

  1. I think its funny that obama cant run away with this election.
    if you listen to the drive by media this is the dems year they are winning every election.
    but mccain is running neck and neck.
    obama should be running away with a big lead.
    but he has to slow down so his huge ego can catch up

    Posted by .(JavaScript must be enabled to view this email address) on August 03, 2008 at 1044 hrs


  2. That is all fine, but the electoral vote thing is interesting too.

    http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/maps/obama_vs_mccain/

    Right now, Obama has a potential 238 electoral votes (includes 85 “leaning”), McCain has 163 (includes 72 “leaning”), & 137 are “toss-up”

    Something else that I found interesting - last night I caught a glimpse of the McLaughlin Group, and they were showing Quinniapiac/WSJ/WP polls for swing states, and they showed Wisconsin being 51 Obama/39 McCain.  That compares to MI @ 46/42; MN @ 46/44; & CO @ 46/44.  That sure is a wide spread for WI, isn’t it?

    Posted by .(JavaScript must be enabled to view this email address) on August 03, 2008 at 1113 hrs


  3. I’m trying to figure out why Matt Drudge is against McCain.  It seems like everytime he can find a favorable poll for Obama, it gets the headline.  Yet none of this stuff ever makes his site. 

    I have little hope for McCain winning in Wisconsin.  Too many government employees here who are part of the “Education/Bureaucracy Complex”. The ship has already sailed on Wisconsin being the “France” of the US.

    Posted by .(JavaScript must be enabled to view this email address) on August 03, 2008 at 1128 hrs


  4. A couple of things I find interesting:

    - When we live in a country with a federal system of government, why anyone cares about national polls other than the news whores on cable is beyond me.  Unless we’re scrapping the electoral college, the number is totally irrelevant.

    - If one is to look at the data on RealClearPolitics, one sees that it actually cuts McCain a more generous break than other websites (say, Pollster).  RCP hands states like Montana and North Dakota to McCain even though current polling data shows both states being potentially competitive.  And even in being generous, they’ve still got the race at 322-216 Obama when they call all the toss-up states.  Pollster has Obama at 284 without toss-ups.

    - Ultimately, I think the elephant in the room for McCain is that the overwhelming majority of toss-up states this cycle are states that Bush carried - Virginia, Missouri, Indiana, Florida, Ohio, and North Carolina are all inside five points right now.  The only blue states inside that margin are Michigan and New Hampshire.  McCain will be underfunded on a relative basis and forced to fight the election in his backyard.  As it stands, McCain pretty much needs to run the board in toss-up states just to get near 270.  Certainly it can be done, but it’s a mighty tall order.

    - I will never discount the ability of racism to swing this election.  By no means do I believe that all McCain supporters are racists - far from it.  But we have to acknowledge that even if it’s a negative factor for just 5-10% of all voters, that could be enough to tip things away from Obama.  Of course, it’ll be near impossible to ever measure that factor with any degree of statistical confidence because it’s the kind of thing that people routinely lie about when asked.  But we’re all kidding ourselves if we pretend it’s not there.  And yes, there are Democratic voters who are racists too, but the most racist among them are so entrenched in a Democratic voting pattern that it won’t significantly disturb the outcome. 

    - If we’re handing out awards, Minnesota is much closer to being the France of the U.S. than Wisconsin.  Besides, we have better cheese.

    Posted by Recess Supervisor on August 03, 2008 at 1221 hrs


  5. I’m not sure that being France is an “award.”  wink

    Posted by Owen on August 03, 2008 at 1239 hrs


  6. “I will never discount the ability of racism to swing this election.  By no means do I believe that all McCain supporters are racists - far from it.  But we have to acknowledge that even if it’s a negative factor for just 5-10% of all voters, that could be enough to tip things away from Obama”
    Sure, and there is no black racism and the 90+% of blacks who will vote for Obama will do so because of the issues and no racism.

    Posted by .(JavaScript must be enabled to view this email address) on August 03, 2008 at 1242 hrs


  7. Dan, if you read my whole comment there, I acknowledged your point.  But if a typical black voter votes Democrat regardless of the color of the candidate’s skin, then the intensity of said voter’s racism (presuming it exists) is irrelevant to the outcome because there is no effect on the outcome.

    I’m not discussing voters who will not turn out unless there is a black candidate on the ballot, although I suppose there are some of those.  I’m discussing the impact of likely voters who participate in elections on a regular basis.  Racism among swing voters would have a far greater impact on the race than racism among partisan extremists who simply vote straight ticket.

    Posted by Recess Supervisor on August 03, 2008 at 1307 hrs


  8. Yes, I was not implying France as an award, rather as an unfortunate state (and State) we find ourselves in here in Wisconsin, and one that is not reversible anymore as the government employment index keeps rising.

    Recess…I understand your point, but what about African Americans who would like to support Republicans or a different point of view?  We generally tend to see “enforcers” in the African American community (and media) who do not make it easy on black republicans.  Or even black conservatives.  There is somewhat a racist orthodoxy or political correctness that prohibits open thought in regards to different political ideas within the African American community. 

    I’d bet that the decades long effects of this African American political orthodoxy are significant enough to equal out the white voters who would otherwise vote democratic but will now vote McCain based solely on racial preferences.

    Posted by .(JavaScript must be enabled to view this email address) on August 03, 2008 at 2157 hrs


  9. Steve, I’m with you.  I’m just not sure that I want to suggest that two wrongs make a right.

    You’re dead on, though.  If there’s one thing the African-American political establishment will never be known for, it’s diversity of opinions and tolerance for intellectual disagreement.  I think that, given the continued emergence of a real African-American middle class, those dynamics will hopefully start to change in the coming generations.  As it is now, there seems to be a tendency among these wealthy African-American race-baiting “leaders” to speak around that middle class to those nearer the lower end of the economic ladder.  However that black middle class family in the suburbs votes, I doubt it’s got much to do with what Jesse Jackson has to say.

    I’m not going to get into whether this urban underclass (a group that is hardly monolithic from an ethnic standpoint) exists by its own doing or by someone else’s, though I do think that as we see more and more racial minorities holding prominent jobs and positions within our communities, the scapegoating of whitey loses a lot of traction.  After all, nobody makes anyone skip school.  Nobody makes anyone get pregnant.  Nobody makes anyone use/abuse/deal drugs.  Those behavioral issues are entirely about self-control.

    Posted by Recess Supervisor on August 03, 2008 at 2225 hrs


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