Election Predictions

I probably shouldn’t bother, but what the heck.

Wisconsin Assembly: Dems gain two seats.  GOP retains majority.

Wisconsin Senate: Dems gain one seat.

U.S. Senate: Dems gain four seats.

U.S. House: Dems gain 12 seats.

President: This one is almost impossible to predict.  As I play with the electoral map, I think that McCain has about a 25% chance of winning.  There are a lot of states “up for grabs” that McCain must win.  But they were almost all heavy GOP states in the past few cycles.  Plus, the polling has been overly weighted to Democrats, I think.  So I’m going to go out and a limb and predict a McCain electoral victory - although a slim one.  Obama will probably win the popular vote either way.

Here are a few other predictions:

- If Obama wins, it will be a mandate regardless of margin.
- If Obama loses, it will be because of latent racism in America.
- The legal challenges will last until December or later.
- The world will continue to revolve tomorrow either way. 
- The Robinson household is expecting three huge events tomorrow and the election results come in third place. 
- The Packers will end the season 8-8 and miss the playoffs.
- The European recession will be worse than the American one. 
- Russia will launch an incursion into the Ukraine within two years. 
- RIM will release a Blackberry that can register as an endpoint on an IP-PBX in 2009.
- IBM will acquire Avaya. 
- Proposition 8 will pass in California.

That is all…

1. Avaya?  Hmm.  Interesting. 

   Posted by (JavaScript must be enabled to view this email address) on November 03, 2008 at 2123 hrs




2. I think we’ll know much of everything tomorrow night by 7pm.  I believe Indiana is usually the first state to start reporting results.  If McCain is +5 or greater there, he might sneak out an electoral college win.  If McCain is too close to call or Indy has Obama ahead, it’s over.

   Posted by (JavaScript must be enabled to view this email address) on November 03, 2008 at 2152 hrs




3. Russa will invade the Ukraine - that is a slam dunk.

   I don’t know how McCain wins - it’s a 10% chance in my book. He simply got outspent - and its going to be another democratic year.

   Posted by (JavaScript must be enabled to view this email address) on November 03, 2008 at 2217 hrs




4. Actually we might know tonight - the Washington Redskins’ last home game before the election routinely predicts the outcome.

   They win, incumbent party does too.

   You a Skins’ fan tonight, Owen?

   Posted by (JavaScript must be enabled to view this email address) on November 03, 2008 at 2225 hrs




5. McCain will win the electoral college and loose the popular vote.

   The youth vote will be much lower than expected and the Sr. vote will be higher than usual. Hispanics and independents will break for McCain and the Jewish vote will remain heavily Obama.

   If I am wrong and Obama is our President, he will be my President too. No more of this hate crap that was dumped on W. It was bad for the country and I will have no part of it.

   Posted by (JavaScript must be enabled to view this email address) on November 03, 2008 at 2227 hrs




6. No, ATV.  Not even that will compel me to root for the Redskins.

   Posted by Owen on November 03, 2008 at 2229 hrs




7. John,

   You bring up a good point: will the hard right put their mouth where their money is and be respectful in their disagreement with a Pres. Obama, considering their (rightful) disgust with the lunatic left’s hatred of Bush?

   Or will we simple see an ODS, thanks to the usual hypocrisy that partisanship requires?

   Posted by (JavaScript must be enabled to view this email address) on November 03, 2008 at 2231 hrs




8. Owen, you get a chance to see the picks by the RS over at Playground? I think he’s off his rocker predicting the Dems gain 7 seats. I say the Dems end the night with a 2 seat majority and the next two years are much of the same. Your thoughts? You seem to be tight with the GOP insiders. Just curious what they might be thinking.

   Posted by (JavaScript must be enabled to view this email address) on November 03, 2008 at 2238 hrs




9. As far as I can tell, there isn’t really a consensus.  I’ve heard convincing arguments from a 10-seat Dem sweep to a 2 seat GOP pick up.  It’s hard for me to judge because Assembly races are very very local.  There are often dynamics at play within a district that are only apparent to those very close to the ground in those districts.  I went through the races and, in general, gave the seat to the incumbent unless there was something big at play.  History generally indicates that people need a reason to change and will stick with the incumbent unless something big compels them otherwise.

   Posted by Owen on November 03, 2008 at 2244 hrs




10. I do not think the Redskins thing works.  The Packers beat the Redskins in 2004 and Bush the incumbent won.

    Posted by (JavaScript must be enabled to view this email address) on November 03, 2008 at 2317 hrs




11. As a former IBMer and having worked with Avaya, they deserve one another. And I wouldn’t want to work for either.

    Posted by (JavaScript must be enabled to view this email address) on November 03, 2008 at 2331 hrs




12. Steve,

    Indeed 2004 was the first time since 1936 that the trend failed to hold up.

    McCain fans better hope it’s been broken for good: Steelers 23, Resdskins 6.

    Posted by (JavaScript must be enabled to view this email address) on November 03, 2008 at 2357 hrs




13. First things first: LOL at #11.  Hilarious.  Perhaps IBM/Avaya could be the new AOL-Time Warner.

    I generally agree with Owen’s comment (#9).  Neither the AssGOP nor the AssDems have put forward anything even remotely resembling a policy agenda.  So most of those races will be candidate-driven except for top-of-the-ticket factors and third-party spending.  But some of those factors have the potential to be extremely significant, such as:

    - For voters who consider the whole Wall Street fiasco a big issue, who are they sticking with the blame?

    - With the RNC and McCain basically conceding Wisconsin well in advance of election day, will Obama benefit from a larger margin than he may have gotten had Wisconsin been contested aggressively?

    If Obama wins by 2-3, then I am probably high and (#8) is probably right - we might be looking at the Dems at or around 51.  But unless the polling models used by all the major firms (including GOP firms like Strategic Vision) are totally broken, they’re all pointing at Obama +10, give or take a little.  The last four polls have come in at +13, +16, +11, and +10.  Odds that one poll is bad?  Substantial.  Odds that *every* poll in the last month has been bad?  Highly unlikely from a statistical standpoint. 

    In the last month, the low-end outlier is Obama +7.  Let’s not forget what Doyle +7 looked like down-ticket two years ago.  Obama +10 will be a bad, bad night for the AssGOP.  Pro-Obama sentiment could well be this cycle’s anti-Iraq sentiment - broad and substantial.

    But we’ll all know more in 24 hours.

    Posted by Recess Supervisor on November 04, 2008 at 0024 hrs




14. “You bring up a good point: will the hard right put their mouth where their money is and be respectful in their disagreement with a Pres. Obama, considering their (rightful) disgust with the lunatic left’s hatred of Bush?”

    This is hilarious!  Don’t forget the wingnut insistence that EVERYHING Bill Clinton did was illegal, immoral, as well as fattening.  Yes, Clinton pulled a few “boners”—so to speak—but Bush did to the economy and the war(s) what Clinton did to Lewinski!

    Posted by (JavaScript must be enabled to view this email address) on November 04, 2008 at 0706 hrs




15. I see Obama taking Wisconsin by a decent margin, certainly more than either Gore or Kerry.  I just can’t imagine McCain overcoming the huge spending disadvantage.

    Nationally, I still maintain the biggest issue hurting McCain is the economy.  Whether or not it’s a GOP or Dem problem, the incumbent party takes the fall when the economy weakens.  That being the case, I think it’ll be close, but Obama will win.  And, if he does, I agree with Mr. Galt.  We may disagree with his politics, but he’ll deserve our respect.

    Posted by (JavaScript must be enabled to view this email address) on November 04, 2008 at 0846 hrs




16. I don’t think you’ll see the same situation regarding Obama that we saw with the Clintons and their relationship with conservatives.  Obama has a very clean past and has run a clean and good campaign.  I’ve certainly got no issues with him.

    With Clinton you had the whole thing going on with him dodging the draft (an issue that Bob Kerrey thought made him unelectable in the primaries) and him sleeping with every woman in Arkansas.  All the while Hillary acted like a supercharged fembot who thought she was the one elected. The whole thing just smelled bad to a lot of us.  And of course we were rewarded with Lewinsky and Hillary bringing over the FBI files of 1,000 republicans and going through them on the White House dining room table.

    I think Obama’s a big liberal, but I also think he’s a very high character and good guy.  Big difference between he and the Clintons IMHO.

    Posted by (JavaScript must be enabled to view this email address) on November 04, 2008 at 0917 hrs




17. John,

    Yes, 100%!  respect the office no matter what you think of the man.  When they crap on President Bush the crap on the office and the country.  If Senator Obama wins today I will not hesitate to remind people of that just the same as I did concerning President Bush

    Posted by (JavaScript must be enabled to view this email address) on November 04, 2008 at 1302 hrs




18. I voted McCain, so while I’d welcome an electoral college victory and a popular vote defeat (seemingly the only route to a McCain presidency), I’d sure hope such a result puts a bullet in the electoral college system. It makes for good TV. It has no other reason to exist.

    Posted by (JavaScript must be enabled to view this email address) on November 04, 2008 at 1347 hrs




19. It has no other reason to exist.

    You musta slept through civics class, tracker.  The electoral college exists because the US is not a true democracy. 

    While it may have flaws, I think it is still viable because it makes sure power is not as concentrated in large population centers.  I sure as heck don’t want LA and NY having more influence in politics than they already do.

    Posted by (JavaScript must be enabled to view this email address) on November 04, 2008 at 1411 hrs




20. I don’t either. But please tell me why the vote of an individual living in a large population center should count less than the vote of one who does not.

    Posted by (JavaScript must be enabled to view this email address) on November 04, 2008 at 1423 hrs




21. Ummm, because the Founding Fathers determined that power should be vested in the individual states.  It’s part of the Constitution.

    You say you voted for McCain, which I’ll accept as factual, but, most of the whining - at least lately - about the electoral college being “unfair” comes as a result of sour grapes from the left.

    Posted by (JavaScript must be enabled to view this email address) on November 04, 2008 at 1429 hrs




22. The electoral college very specifically draws power away from the large population centers. It’s why Wyoming, Montana, North Dakota, et. al., have the same number of senators as New York and California, and therefore disproportionate weighting in the electoral college. It’s a very, very slight difference, but a Montanan’s vote counts a tiny bit more than a New Yorker’s or a Texan’s vote.

    Posted by (JavaScript must be enabled to view this email address) on November 04, 2008 at 1439 hrs




23. Ummm, because it’s undemocratic. I like democracies and choose to live in one. While the electoral college had valid reasons to exist in 1776, now, there’s no point to it. A Hawaiian casts a vote today that is roughly worth two to the one I cast today in Wisconsin.

    Posted by (JavaScript must be enabled to view this email address) on November 04, 2008 at 1444 hrs




24. Not only do we need to respect Obama but the majority vote of your fellow citizens. Somehow the BDS group forgot that he was elected too and thought they were smarter than everyone else.

    As far as the electoral college goes, I don’t see how more electoral votes vs people votes is more democratic-even if it is in the constitution. They have been talking about getting rid of it since the first election I remember - Kennedy/Nixon. It’s still on the books.

    Posted by (JavaScript must be enabled to view this email address) on November 04, 2008 at 1502 hrs




25. Dems only picking up 12 seats in Congress?  Really?  US Senate is going to be 6 as well, maybe more but not enough to reach 60.

    Everything else is right on.

    Posted by (JavaScript must be enabled to view this email address) on November 04, 2008 at 1625 hrs




26. People in other smaller states do not on the face of it possess a more meaningful vote than in Wisconsin.  One, they are voting for fewer electors.  Two, most states have a winner take all system for the electors, thus whether or not your vote had meaning depends on the likelihood that your vote would settle the tie that would award the electors to one side or the other.

    Posted by (JavaScript must be enabled to view this email address) on November 04, 2008 at 1759 hrs




27. The electoral college should be dumped.  We wouldn’t have to change the constitution to do it.  The states would just have to agree to give their electoral votes to which ever candidate had the most support in the general election.

    Posted by (JavaScript must be enabled to view this email address) on November 04, 2008 at 1822 hrs