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Does Duffy Stand a Chance Against Obey?

Kevin opines.

Maybe, the district is marginally-Democratic…on the Presidential level.  However, for nearly 40 years, Obey has made the district into an economic wasteland where the seemingly only form of economic development is pork he brings to the area.  Because of that, Duffy will have a hard row to hoe when it comes to having unseat the powerful chairman of the House Appropriations Committee.

Just think… there are two generations of voters in that district who have never known any other congressman than Obey and two more generations that have reelected him for 40 years.  The power of incumbency.

Posted by Owen at 2113 hrs
Politics + Politics - Wisconsin

1. Sean does have a chance - a damn good chance.

   Obey has the misfortune of being the architect of Obama’s failed stimulus plan, and his insane budget.

   Sean is the only one who can take this seat back and it will be because Obey is no longer in the minority doing what he does best – complaining.

   He is now in charge of all spending. Neither the President or the U.S. Senate cannot spend a dime until it originates in the house, under Obey’s control.

   He should be run out of the country on a rail.

   Posted by .(JavaScript must be enabled to view this email address) on July 08, 2009 at 2248 hrs
   
   
   

2. I think back about 20 years ago when a young, good-looking TV personality took on an old congressional dinasour who was also considered unbeatable after three decades in the House. 

   The fresh newcomer was Scott Klug, who upended Bob Kastenmeier in liberal Dane County. 

   Anyone is beatable.

   Posted by .(JavaScript must be enabled to view this email address) on July 08, 2009 at 2252 hrs
   
   
   

3. Wow.  Great call on the Kastenmeier analogy.

   The bottom line is that the few small manufacturing concerns in that district are all struggling mightily and shedding jobs.  It is all about the jobs.  If they continue to go away, Obey can be beaten.

   Posted by .(JavaScript must be enabled to view this email address) on July 08, 2009 at 2327 hrs
   
   
   

4. a lot of union jobs have left the area- especially papaer making jobs in the Wisconsin Rapids area.  Further, other union companies have shut down, so he will lose their support and money.  There’s really only 1 real liberal area and that is Stevens Point and with the exception of around U.W. Stevens Point, it’s not all that liberal.
   If Duffy runs a great campaign and gets lots of money to advertise, he has a chance.  His downfall will be the lack of media- they don’t have a coverage and it tends to be on the liberal side.  The people also don’t like negative coverage, so Duffy will have to be careful.
   Is it possible, yes, will it happen hopefully, but probably not.

   Posted by Dan on July 09, 2009 at 0150 hrs
   
   
   

5. I sure hope Sean supports and will help sponsor Term Limits.

   Posted by phel on July 09, 2009 at 0534 hrs
   
   
   

6. I agree with Dan for the most part. I think that the district is so large that Duffy will have too much ground to cover. I think it should be mentioned that Duffy will have a primary against the ultra conservative Dan Mielke which may help him. Mielke ran last time and his mud slinging didn’t do him any good.

   They need to run on what they will do and not what obey has or hasn’t done.

   As long as Obey wants it, he will likely remain.

   Posted by .(JavaScript must be enabled to view this email address) on July 09, 2009 at 0539 hrs
   
   
   

7. I’ve lived in this district.    It’s a district the Republican party could have claimed a dozen times in the last 40 years had they made even a modest attempt at it.

   This district represents the power of the national Republican party making decisions at a national level with little knowledge of the actual congressional district, not the power of incumbency.

   Posted by .(JavaScript must be enabled to view this email address) on July 09, 2009 at 0622 hrs
   
   
   

8. Obey made the district into an economic wasteland?

   What?

   Jobs that were lost in that and other districts were because they were moved elsewhere by multinationals. Obey had nothing to do with that.

   Posted by .(JavaScript must be enabled to view this email address) on July 09, 2009 at 0726 hrs
   
   
   

9. Jobs that were lost in that and other districts were because they were moved elsewhere by multinationals. Obey had nothing to do with that.

   Who did then?  Who approached the multi-nationals and offered them incentive packages to stay?  Why wouldn’t Obey have a role to play?

   Seems to me that it was Reps. Ryan and Baldwin and Sens. Feingold and Kohl who met with GM to persuade them to reopen the Janesville plant.

   

   Posted by hsgbdmama on July 09, 2009 at 0742 hrs
   
   
   

10. And to answer the original question, Duffy certainly does have a fighting chance.  Obey has a very long congressional record to defend, including the probable fact that along with the rest of Congress, he hasn’t been reading these monsterous and far-reaching bills either.

    Posted by hsgbdmama on July 09, 2009 at 0744 hrs
    
    
    

11. The comments here on the political make-up of the 7th are poorly informed.  I’m rooting for Sean and will be helping him as much as I can.  But as someone that was born, raised, and is politically active in this area, there needs to be a dose of reality injected here. 

    There is more than one “liberal” area of this district and it could not been claimed a “dozen times in the last 40 years” as others have ridiculously suggested.  The last competitive race was really 1994, during the Republican wave of that year, in which Scott West held Obey to 54% in his reelection. 

    In looking at the politics of the district, it may be helpful to break it up into its component State Assembly districts.  There are essentially 12 Assembly Districts in the 7th, with small chunks of a couple others.  Currently there are 7 Democrats, 4 Republicans and an independent in these 12 districts.  While that may not sound too bad, one should also take into account that several of the Democrat districts are very solidly Democrat, while only two of the Republican districts could be considered solid for Republicans.  Additionally, one of the Republicans is holding on to a swing seat that has seen razor-thin margins in recent elections.

    Sean has a tough road, but I don’t believe it is a lost cause.  He is a good candidate and with the right message can make a play on this seat.  His success depends largely on national factors out of his control, as well as the willingness/ability of 7th district residents to be active.  While the size of the district is daunting, the geographical area is much less a challenge than the need for adequate funds to take on an entrenched incumbent.

    Posted by .(JavaScript must be enabled to view this email address) on July 09, 2009 at 1315 hrs
    
    
    

12. Sean Duffy has a very strong chance of winning this election.  Obey’s 40 years of political experience has now brought this nation into financial ruin, as evidenced by the large debt this country is now responsible for.  And it is us, the taxpayers who must now pay the credit card bill that the big spender Obey signed. Many folks in the 7th district see the need for new leadership. A breath of fresh air is what Sean and his family bring to northern Wisconsin politics.  Sean can relate to young working families and the needs of us baby boomers, who face many challenges as we enter our retirement years. The time for a new congressperson has arrived and Sean can win in 2010.

    Posted by .(JavaScript must be enabled to view this email address) on July 09, 2009 at 1522 hrs
    
    
    

13. The 7th district could have been claimed by the Republican party anytime they wanted it, northernlights.  Instead they have chosen a combination of poor candidates and poorly funded candidates.  This district is a shining example of the Republican Party’s emphasis on the irrelevant.    All the republicans needed to do was run a middle age fiscal conservative with no particular attachment to any social issues, with a positive campaign and plaster his face on TV.  That has proven too difficult.    Scott West’s 1994 bid managed 45% of the vote with essentially no campaign at all.

    Posted by .(JavaScript must be enabled to view this email address) on July 09, 2009 at 1742 hrs
    
    
    

14. Some of the comments here bear no relation to reality.  This is the poored congressional district in the state.  Much of the economy is propped up by state and federal assistance programs.  Running a campaign based on a call for less government “welfare” won’t fly here.

    You can preach the “limited government” mantra and sell it in Washington County, but it won’t sell in the 7th CD.  You aren’t dealing with the talk-radio wingnuts in NW Wisconsin.

    I can tell you Pretty-Boy Duffy’s motivation for running:  He and the missus (a minor cable TV celebrity in her own right) want out of the north country, and this is their way out of Ashland.  One way or the other, they are on the next train out of Dodge.

    Posted by .(JavaScript must be enabled to view this email address) on July 09, 2009 at 1956 hrs
    
    
    

15. You can sell limited government to the 7th anytime you want.  What you are unlikely to sell is limited government with an “R” behind it.  That brand has been debauched.

    Posted by .(JavaScript must be enabled to view this email address) on July 09, 2009 at 2013 hrs
    
    
    

16. Sorry BVBigBro, but you’ve got the script completely reversed.  The 7th is not the libertarian nirvana you believe it to be.  The residents are not fiscally conservative by and large.  I’m not sure how you’re able to apply a fiscal conservative quality to an electorate that at the same time has been electing an unabashed big government congressman for 40 years.  The man campaigns and touts the earmarks and funding he’s able to procure.  On the other hand, the 7th has socially conservative elements, as seen in the overwhelming support for the marriage amendment.  On this particular point, I have to agree with Rational Observer.

    Posted by .(JavaScript must be enabled to view this email address) on July 09, 2009 at 2225 hrs
    
    
    

17. I’ve never suggested the 7th is libertarian nirvana, only that it is considerably more economically conservative than the what the Republican party has chosen to become.    It’s also not terribly socially conservative.    The marriage amendment simply is mainstream, something the Democrats don’t want to admit.    It’s also relatively unimportant to most people, something the Republicans can’t get through their heads.

    The recent efforts of the Republicans to get left of the democrats fiscally and right of them socially leaves them in a poor position to contest districts like the 7th.    That’s the result of Republican choices, not incumbency.    Keep campaigning on marriage amendments and flag-waving.  Maybe Obey can keep his seat for another 40 years.

    Posted by .(JavaScript must be enabled to view this email address) on July 10, 2009 at 0645 hrs
    
    
    

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