Iran Abandoned Nukes in 2003 According to NIE

So what to do with this?

Iran halted work toward a nuclear weapon under international scrutiny in 2003 and is unlikely to be able to produce enough enriched uranium for a bomb until 2010 to 2015, a U.S. intelligence report says.

A declassified summary of the latest National Intelligence Estimate found with “high confidence” that the Islamic republic stopped an effort to develop nuclear weapons in the fall of 2003.

The estimate is less severe than a 2005 report that judged the Iranian leadership was “determined to develop nuclear weapons despite its international obligations and international pressure.”

But the latest report says Iran—which declared its ability to produce enriched uranium for a civilian energy program in 2006—could reverse that decision and eventually produce a nuclear weapon if it wanted to do so.

First off, this is good news.  Let’s not ignore that fact.  If the intelligence is correct, it is good news that Iran is not working on a nuclear weapon.  Something must have been happening in 2003 to cause both Libya and Iran to abandon their nuclear ambitions…

But let’s not get too complacent.  Remember that the report also says:

“We judge with moderate confidence that the earliest possible date Iran would be technically capable of producing enough highly enriched uranium for a weapon is late 2009, but that this is very unlikely,” the report says. A more likely time frame for that production is between 2010 and 2015, it concludes.

2009 9 is all of 13 months away, and 2010 is only a year after that.  According to this NIE, Iran is close… uncomfortable close to becoming a nuclear power.