There seems to be a real disconnect between the folks actually crunching the numbers and those spewing the rhetoric.
Asked by Senate Budget Committee Chairman Kent Conrad, D-N.D., if the evolving legislation would bend the cost curve, the budget director responded that — as things stand now — “the curve is being raised.”
Explained Elmendorf: “In the legislation that has been reported, we do not see the sort of fundamental changes that would be necessary to reduce the trajectory of federal health spending by a significant amount. And on the contrary, the legislation significantly expands the federal responsibility for health care costs.”
Even if the legislation doesn’t add to the federal deficit over the next years, Elmendorf said costs over the long run would keep rising at an unsustainable pace.
Part of the reason is that Obama and most Democrats have refused to accept a tax on high-cost health insurance plans as part of the overhaul. There’s wide agreement among economists that such a tax would give businesses and individuals an incentive to become thriftier consumers of health care. Senate Finance Committee Chairman Max Baucus, D-Mont., said Thursday that Obama’s position isn’t helping matters.
White House officials played down the significance of the budget director’s assessment, calling it premature. “At the end of the day, we’ll have significant cost controls,” presidential adviser David Axelrod told The Associated Press.